Who should bat 2nd? (Easy answer)

I recently wrote about who should be leading off for the Yankees.  Due to all the injuries the Yankees have endured I had to write based on the assumption that all were healthy.  The result it was more of a “what if” piece and less a “Joe’s to do list” piece.

The topic of who should be batting second in the order thankfully does not fall under the umbrella of “what if” as both the player who should be batting second every day and the person who has been are both healthy.  This, therefore, is another Joe must do list.

Your best offensive player needs to be batting 2^nd.  Not should be, not you’d like it if… Your best offensive player needs to bat 2^nd in the order.

Therefore, Aaron Judge needs to bat 2^nd every time he’s in the lineup.

Therefore, Jacoby Ellsbury, somewhere between your 9^th and 11^th best offensive player, should never see any of the first five spots in the batting order.

Never.

My best probably won’t be good enough, but I’ll do my best to give you the short version of what Tom Tango, Mitchel Lichtman and Andrew Dolphin came up with*:

Each spot in the batting order is more or less likely to be in certain situations than other spots in the order.  The leadoff hitter is more likely to be up with no outs and no one on than any other spot.  The number 5 spot is most likely to come up with runners on base.

Each batting outcome has more or less value depending on the situation.  A walk is more valuable than a single with nobody on base.  A single is more valuable than a walk with runners on 2^nd and 3^rd.  A triple and a home run have similar values leading off an inning.  With runners on and 2 outs, a homerun is far more valuable.

These are just examples, but the point is, when you see what spots in the order are likely to see which situations, you can match up your player’s skillsets with those lineup spots.

And obviously, batters will bat more often the higher in the order they are.

When out and baserunner situations are factored in, combined with the frequencies of plate appearances of each spot in the order, the number two spot in the order will see the most at bats with the most baserunners on with the most outs, most often.

i.e., your best offensive player needs to bat second.

I’m hoping there is no dispute that Aaron Judge is the Yankees best batter.

Now on to beating a dead horse:

As I noted in my previous post about the leadoff spot, Ellsbury has two skills:  He’s fast and he makes contact.  Both of those skills can be utilized lower in the order as he can attempt stolen bases with less risk and is more likely to drive someone in with a single with two outs.

Order spots one through five however, more impactful skills are needed – particularly the abilities to get on base, hit, and hit with power.  Ellsbury has none of those skills.  He’s 7^th on the Yankees in OBP, 8^th in SLG, 8^th in OPS+.  That’s not factoring in new additions like Tyler Wade and Clint 

Frazier.

So give this some thought today when simpleton summer camp (the Yes network) attempts to explain Girardi’s lineup selections.

Thanks to baseball reference for the stats.

*They authored “The Book”.  In the discussion of the best baseball book I’ve read.