Tuesday, July 18, 2017

Joey Bullpen and Chase Headley

Two quick hitters for you today:

Never change, Joey Bullpen:

I’ve covered this before, so I’m going to pass over the numbers that say it’s insane to use your best relief pitcher in a game where your team is either leading or trailing by 3 runs or more (that’s a game whose outcome will be the same with 99% of MLB pitchers, 99% of the time).  However, it is absolutely crucial to have him in games where you’re leading or trailing by 2 runs or less, as he gives you a significantly greater advantage than an average pitcher does in that case. 

So I’ll get right to some more information with the aforementioned as a back drop and frame of reference:

Yankees manager Joe Girardi recently said that the “extra wear and tear” of pitching for the Cubs in the World Series last season may be a reason Chapman is struggling this season.  “…sometimes it does catch up to you…”, Joey Bullpen explained.

In fairness, even with missing last April, Chapman did log a career high in innings last year when the regular season and post season were combined.

But whether or not he’s fatigued as a result is an irrelevant question.  The question is, if you believe that to be the case, how do you handle it ongoing?

I’ll tell you how I would NOT handle it, if I believed he were struggling as a residual side effect of over use:

I would not use him in meaningless games.  I know, I’m a crazy person, right?

In 42% of Chapman’s appearances THIS season, Chapman has been used in games where one team led the other by 3 runs or more. 

Essentially, in almost half of his appearances, Chapman - the $86 million dollar man - has been used in mop up duty.

This includes his first 3 appearances of the season in April where he was called on to “close out” games with 5-0, 7-3, and 8-4 leads.

This includes, when after being used against the first place Red Sox on July 14th, and 15th he was called on to protect a three run lead on the 16th.  They had another game against Boston later that night, for which he was unavailable.

Maybe it isn’t how Joe Maddon used him.  Just a thought.

I was wrong:

Chase Headley is, in fact, as bad as everyone has told me he is.  Among 19 Major League 3rd baseman (or, 3rd “basemens” as Paul O’Neill says) who have qualified for the batting title and have played 80% of their games at 3rd base:

Headley is 11th in OBP, 17th in SLG, 18th in OPS+, 18th in WAR, and 18th in dWAR.

I’m not going to try to do Brian Cashamn’s job for him, but I will say the prognosis is bad if you’re looking to upgrade.  Todd Frazier, Nick Castellanos and Yunel Escobar aren’t much better – definitely not worth giving up a breathing body for.


Thanks to NJ.com and Baseball Reference.

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