Milwaukee who?

So the Yankees are playing the Brewers this weekend.  I’m assuming you know next to nothing about the Brewers because nobody outside the families of the team members does.  So I did some checking and here’s what you need to know, in no particular order:

The Brewers are an average team.  They’re 4^th in the NL in run differential, they’re 5^th in the NL in simple rating system (strength of schedule plus run differential), 5^th in the NL in runs scored, 11^th in on base percentage, 4^th in ERA+, 8^th in fielding independent pitching, 10^th in strikeout to walk ratio, and 11^th in team defensive efficiency.

Like I said, average.

According to Fangraphs projections, they have a 12% chance to win their division, an 8% chance of getting a wild card, and .04% chance of winning the world series.

So why are they in first place in the NL Central?

Two reasons:

1. They play in a shitty division.  They’re the only team over .500.

2. They have power.  They’re 2^nd in the NL in slugging percentage.

When you play against bad teams who tend to throw the ball down the middle, power comes in handy.  We’ll come back to that.

A few more specifics:

• Keep your eyes on Eric Sogard, he’s a very underrated player.  He’s been battling an ankle issue and is day to day, but anyone that can play all infield positions and has a .438 on base percentage can play on my team any day – hope I get to see him this weekend.

• The Brewers best two pitchers, Chase Anderson and Jimmy Nelson, aren’t scheduled to pitch this weekend.

• The Brewers can hit fastballs.  Sogard, Eric Thames, Keon Broxton and Travis Shaw are all above average fastball hitters.  On the whole, they’re OK against sliders, but they have nobody who’ll scare you against changeups or splitters.

Add this up and what does it mean?

The Yankees should win two out of three this weekend.  Even with Hicks, Holliday and Castro out – whose collective absence is killing the team even more than commonly discussed – the Yankees are still a better team.  Factor in, as noted, two of three of Milwaukee’s Best (like what I did there?) aren’t pitching.

If Severino, Tanaka and Montgomery can a) command the changeups and splitters and b) avoid conceding to batters with mediocre fastballs down the middle when behind in the count, the Yankees will be just fine this weekend.

That’s assuming Girardi doesn’t bunt or mismanage a bullpen the Yanks to more losses…

As usual, thanks to Fangraphs and baseball reference for the statistics and information.