Scraper, meet barrel bottom

I’ve mentioned it before, so for brevity’s sake, I’ll avoid a long introductory, obsequious ode to Joe Girardi.  Joe has some strengths as a manager.  Keeping a few dozen egos on the same page for six months without drama isn’t easy.  Avoiding on camera melt downs while answering some of the dumbest questions human beings have ever uttered takes some skill.  Having what has essentially been a crappy franchise for a long time and keeping them in contention in September every year takes some skill.

Now that I’m finished with the preamble that may limit some of the “But what about…” responses I’ll receive, let’s get to the bottom line:

Joe Girardi is an awful in game strategical manager.  Awful.  He constantly misuses his bullpen, leaving his best pitchers watching as the team’s 9^th, 10^th and 11^th best pitchers pitch in crucial situations.  His players continue to attempt bunts and stolen bases in situations where the risk/reward situation is so heavy leaning risk side that it’s nonsensical to even discuss.

Also I’ve written before, this has gone on all season with the Yankees and very may well cost them the division as many games this season, that have been close late, have been lost.

Despite a half season of Joe’s insistence on ignoring logic, facts and data in favor of toeing the line and doing what all the other ex-jocks would do, because you know, that’s what we’ve always done…the 7^th inning in yesterday’s game was managed more poorly than any rational fan watching could think possible.

At least we hope.  We collectively hope that the scraper has indeed met the bottom of the barrel.  Joe has had a rough season.  Hopefully this was rock bottom.

In case you missed it:

After trailing 5-0, the Yankees came back to take a 6-5 lead heading into the top of the 6^th, with help in part from another Aaron Judge home run.  More on this later…

Let’s add more context:  Dellin Betances and Aroldis Chapman had not pitched the previous day.  The following day was a day off for the team.

As has been previously discussed here: 

• The 6^th inning is as important as the ninth. 
• Games in July count just as much as games in September.
• Your best players need to be used in the most crucial situations to maximize their value.
• Asking your best relievers to get six outs when sandwiched around off days is not asking too much of them (to think starters get criticized for being "coddled")

Therefore, Dellin Betances should have started the 6^th inning.  Expecting 12 outs from he and Chapman combined would not only be reasonable, but would create the highest percentage chance of your team winning the game – by FAR.

Should the game situation change past the top of the 6th – should the Yankees add significantly to their lead, or should Betances pitch poorly, you can change course with regards to who’s pitching then.  What you don’t do is play “let’s wait and see if a REALLY important situation comes up later in which I might need my best players - I'll save them until then”.

Instead Girardi went to Chad Green, the Yankees’ 10^th best pitcher (literally).  Chad Green pitched a scoreless 6^th, then gave up a home run to Russel Martin – who was batting 2^nd in the lineup – to tie the game in the 7^th.  Why is his spot in the order significant?  Because you may – MAY – have been able to justify Green pitching the 6^th with batters 8, 9 and 1 coming up so Betances could pitch to batters 2,3 and 4 – but Luddite Joe blew that opportunity too.

But hold on, because Joe play it like it’s 1991 Girardi, as we would soon find out, was just getting warmed up.

So here we go.  Tie game, bottom of the 7^th.  Tyler Wade, a promising rookie with a .390 on base percentage in AAA leading off, then top of the order – Brett Gardner, then Aaron Judge (the best player in baseball) then Gary Sanchez (the best hitting catcher in baseball) coming up next.  This is as good a chance the Yankees could have to have a multi-run inning that would all but put the game away.

You literally couldn’t ask for a better environment in which to score multiple runs.  Because Toronto manager John Gibbons, not to be undone by Girardi, didn’t put his best pitcher in either.

Tyler Wade walked to leadoff.  Great start.  At this point (runner on first, nobody out) the Yankees have an average run expectancy of .953 runs per inning.

That’s an average.  With a good baserunner (Wade), a batter with 15 HR by the break (Gardner), the best hitter in baseball (Judge), and a guy with a career .584 slugging percentage coming up (Sanchez), that average goes MUCH higher.  This inning should have worn a sign:  This is going to be a big inning.

Of course, the members of simpleton summer camp (the Yes network) immediately began discussing the merits of bunting in this position.

Eye roll.

They didn’t get into detail, so they did not mention, that a sacrifice bunt attempt is “successful” only about half the time.  Just over 50% actually.

They also did not mention that if Gardner bunted “successfully” and Wade moved to 2nd, their average run expectancy would drop to .725.  That’s a pretty significant drop from .95.

Of course, it wasn’t mentioned the other approximate half of the time, the bunt attempt is not successful and an out is just given away.  This would drop the run expectancy to .573.  For the mathematically challenged, that’s a huge drop in run expectancy.

They also did not mention what was on the mind of quite likely, every reasonable person watching who can think more than one consecutive thought:  If Gardner bunts “successfully” and Wade moves to second base, Toronto would counter by intentionally walking Aaron Judge.  In other words, the best player in baseball, who happens to be on your team, and who happens to be coming up in a crucial situation, would lose a chance to swing the bat – because of YOUR CHOICE.

Rubs temples…

Spoiler alert:  Gardner bunted “successfully”, Judge was walked intentionally, Sanchez and Didi Gregorius popped out.  Betances took the mound in the 8^th and proceeded to embarrass himself.  The Yankees lost.

I understand, as I’ve written publicly before, that the team with the players who play the best will win 9 times out of ten regardless of strategical maneuvers by the managers.

I understand Betances hasn’t pitched well recently.

If either of those thoughts were the first things to pop into your head, you are missing the point.

First, managerial decisions may not factor into most games, but they do factor into some.  And in a 162 game season that is often decided by three games or fewer, winnable games can’t be managed into lose-able games if you expect to play in October.  Girardi has made a habit of that this year – anyone who doesn’t see that hasn’t been watching.

Secondly, Betances not pitching well is irrelevant with regards to this game.  Saying he shouldn’t have been used anyway because he hasn’t pitched well or that Girardi’s decision didn’t matter, is silly logic if we’re being frank.  That’s like saying I had 6 beers, got in the car to drive home but another car crashed into me, so it wasn’t my fault.

BS.  It was a stupid decision whether you go hit or not.  The same as not using your best players when the game is on the line is a stupid decision whether you ultimately win or lose the game.

Does the Yankee bullpen need to pitch better?  Of course.

But there was a time they were pitching pretty damn well, and Girardi still managed the same way:  use lesser players in an immediate and important situation because there might be an important situation later in which they can be used.

It’s nonsense.  It’s already cost the Yankees wins and will cost them more.