Sunday, July 9, 2017

Frazier was a side effect, credit Girardi.

I’ve been as critical of Joe Girardi as anyone.  But yesterday (drumroll), he had a great – not good – great game and he’s the reason the Yankees won.

Don’t get me wrong – I jumped off the couch and wind milled my arm like Pete Townsend when Clint Frazier* hit the ball over the wall in the 9th, followed by many fist pumps and “F yeah!”s.

*Or as Simpleton Summer Camp (Yes network) member Paul O’Neill says “Fray-zer”.  Deep breath…

Because this game is about fun, and that was fun to watch.

That being said, Clint Frazier’s home run was residual side effect.  The Yankees won that game because Joe Girardi put them in a position to win that game.

Joe’s great move #1 – putting Dellin Betances in when down by a run in the 8th inning.

Joe’s modus operandi this season has been to use the Yankee’s 10th or 11th pitcher in spots like this, saving Betances and Chapman for potential mop-up duty later on.  Joe used one of his best guns and it worked – scoreless 8th.

Joe’s great move #2 – putting Aroldis Chapman in to pitch the 9th inning, still trailing by a run.

See above.  This is where Joe normally trusts a one run, late game deficit to the Jonathan Holders, Tyler Clippards and Domingo Germans of the world.  He went to his “closer” (I use that term sarcastically, as it’s a nonsensical term) and it worked – scoreless 9th.

Joe’s great move #3 – not having Chase Headley bunt in the 9th inning.

Didi Gregorius led off the 9th with a 4 pitch walk and up came Chase Headley.  Immediately Simpleton Summer Camp queried as to whether or not Headley should bunt.  As discussed here previously, that notion is so nonsensical it’s not even worth further examination.

Headley did not bunt.  Headley struck out.

You may think that means he should have bunted.  I would disagree.

First, you don’t use the result to justify the means (unless you have a disinclination to logic).

Secondly, a strikeout there isn’t that bad when compared to a sacrifice bunt.  Yes, seriously.

A runner on 2nd and 1 out has a run expectancy of .72.  A runner on first with one out has a run expectancy of .57.  Whether or not that’s a big enough difference to justify the risk of bunting is debatable.  For starters, that doesn’t factor in the close to 50/50 chance that the bunt wouldn’t be successful.  It also doesn’t consider that a strikeout there isn’t THAT harmful – at least there’s no double play.

But this is conjecture based on the benefit of hindsight.  What we know is that a runner on first with no one out has a run expectancy of .95.  A runner on 2nd and one out has a run expectancy of .72 and a runner on 1st with one out has a run expectancy of .57 (the latter two being bunt attempt outcomes).  Therefore, a bunt in this situation would have been ridiculous – and Joe made the right choice.


As you probably know, Jacoby Ellsbury walked and Clint Frazier homered and the Yankees won.  

Yes, the players won the game, but Joe Girardi gave them the opportunity to do so and deserves a ton of credit for the win.

Postscript:  On another note, I found another reason to love Clint Frazier in addition to yesterday’s performance and the overall sense of hope he brings:  When Simpleton Summer Camp’s Chris Shearn asked Frazier after the HR if Clint’s hair was OK, Clint looked at him with a look of “WTF kind of question is that, bro?”  A similar look followed when Shearn asked Clint “How did it feel…” blah, blah, blah… Maybe this is an upside to the younger generation.  They seem less tolerant of dumb ass questions.

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