All Star Game thoughts:

I really wanted to avoid the tired tradition of 2^nd half predictions and 1^st half recaps, so this may seem a little random, but I think it’s better for all if we stay off the beaten path and think about things as they arise.  Let the tabloids do the 1^st half MVPs, Cy Youngs and Rookies of the Year…yawn…

Watching the FOX broadcast of the actual game reminded me of why I started this blog in the first place:  Listening to the same questions posed to the same players then the same talking heads discussing the same topics can be mind-numbing.  You can parade A-Rod around the field all you want and you can have Joe Buck talk to Bryce Harper during actual play all you want – it won’t change the tedium.

So for the sake of keeping it random, these two things occurred to me Tuesday night during the game:

Billy Beane is going to fleece another GM at the trade deadline with Yonder Alonso…

…and Brian Cashman recently said he’s looking to upgrade first base for the Yankees.  Put a pin in that, I’ll come back to it.

Other than having a great slugging percentage this season and being a free agent at the end of it, here’s what you need to know about Yonder Alonso:

His 2017 slugging percentage is .562.  His previous single season high is .397.

His ’17 OPS+ is 151.  His previous single season high is 110.

He’s on pace for 2.7 wins above replacement.  His previous single season high was 1.8.

Additionally, there is pretty solid reasoning that suggests that the baseballs this year are different than in the past, resulting in an increase in power numbers for batters.

Currently, Alonso is in a 1 year, $4 million contract, making him a free agent at the end of the season.

Needless to say, Billy Beane will be looking to move him.

So, question for you, if you were another GM:

How much would you be willing to give up for a player a) who may only be with you for 2 months, b) who will command $16 million per season at the end of the season, c) whose power over the past three months is an aberration, in a season full of aberrations, and d) who at his best, isn’t even a 3 win player?

Is it possible, like Daniel Murphy and Ryan Zimmerman, he changed his swing and 2017 is the real thing?  Possible, but unlikely, I say.

I’ll say this:  I would tread lightly if I were a GM.  I wouldn’t give up anything I liked.  Call me a skeptic, but I get the vibe in two years, the A’s will be winning 90 something games with prospects Beane gets for Alonso in two weeks.

Back to Cashman:

What got me thinking about this, was as I was watching the game Tuesday night, I wondered aloud what team is going to get suckered and over pay for Yonder Alonso?

The last time I had that thought?  During the 2013 world series, when I was watching Jacoby Ellsbury.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have 61 wins.  The Houston Astros have 60.  The next best team has seven fewer.

Both the Dodgers and Astros are run by General Managers who did not have experience in baseball prior to being hired as GM’s.  This is not a coincidence.

Andrew Friedman of the Dodgers was an extremely successful Wall Street analyst who took his analytical skills to the Tampa Bay Rays, leading them to a World Series appearance in ’08 before moving on to the Dodgers.  (Say that again for effect:  a World Series appearance from the Rays.)

Jeff Luhnow of the Astros is so smart I don’t even understand the job titles of his previous jobs.  He earned two degrees from the University of Pennsylvania in economics and engineering, before moving on to get an MBA.  Only then did he move on to the St. Louis Cardinals where he not only helped turn them into a perennial contender and multiple World Series winner, but was so effective the Cardinals thought it was worth cyber- hacking the Astros player data base once Luhnow went to Houston.

Why am I sharing this?

Just as a reminder that every time you hear an ex-jock speak into a microphone about how statistics are ruining the game, and sabermetrics this and the statisticians never played that…and every time you hear Paul O’Neill, John Flaherty and Al Leiter saying things like they’re “old school”, and you need to “make something happen, put pressure on the defense” and how the “Win” statistic is important, remember:

They have already lost the argument, and are either hugely ignorant, or just plain bitter that they know little about the game they played for decades.

Insert Brad Pitt voice from Moneyball: You think you know, but you don’t. YOU. DON’T.

There are people who are exponentially smarter, who have done exponentially more work on subject matters relevant to winning baseball games than they have.  The war is over.  The nerds won.

Parenthetically, the Philadelphia Phillies at 29 wins, were the last team to hire analytical statisticians.