Some "in person" scouting today

I’m going to the Lakewood Blueclaws game this fine, sunny, July Sunday afternoon.  For those of you out of the loop, the ‘claws are the South Atlantic League’s A ball affiliate of the Philadelphia Phillies.  I’ve seen Cole Hamels, Ryan Howard, Carols Carrasco and Michael Bourn among others, go through the ranks.  And for what it’s worth, Carrasco was a sight to see at this level – other A ballers didn’t have a chance against him.  But more importantly than that, the ‘claws let you bring your dog to the game on Sundays, and my wife and I don’t go anywhere without our dogs.

Seriously.

Today, Lakewood are playing the Charelston River Dogs, the Yankees A ball affiliate.  So I figured I’d lose my keyboard expert tag for the day and give you some good ole’ scout sitting in the stands, with a brew, cigar and radar gun perspective.  Even if the reality will be sitting in the grass with my wife and dogs…and a brew and a pizza slice.

So here’s who’ll I’ll be watching, with some general thoughts first:

For pitchers, I (and the people at Baseball Prospectus and Fangraphs) like the ability to miss bats and throw good strikes – in other words, succeed in areas that are somewhat within their control.  So I look at strikeouts per 9 innings, strikeout to walk ratio and independent fielding pitching.

For batters, I tend to agree with the Billy Beane Money ball philosophy that batters either stay in the strike zone or they don’t from the very first time they step in the box as children.  Guys who didn’t when they were kids, never will, even as adults.  So as with the big leaguers, I like on base percentage as a measuring stick.  And generally, because power numbers are much lower in the minors than in the majors, a player with power in the minors is indicative of a power hitter – that may be obvious and/or repetitive, but it’s very true in this case.  If you can hit home runs in A ball, you have power. So again, not unlike how I evaluate the big leagues, slugging percentage, on base plus slugging and weighted runs created plus* are what I look at.

And one more thing of note, thanks to the Baseball Prospectus group:  Player’s age relative to the average age of players in the league is a huge indicator of future performance.  I.e., if the average age of the South Atlantic League players is 21.5, and a 19 year old is dominating the league, that’s an enormous boost to his value as it indicates he’s very likely to see the show at some point.  (As opposed to a player who is 23 and doing well at the same level…)

With that in mind:

Brandon Wagner

Wagner is an infielder from New Jersey’s own Immaculata high school who was a 6^th round pick of the Yankees.  He’s 21 which is -.5 years under average for the SAL.  Brandon leads the South Atlantic League in OBP, and he’s 11^th in weighted runs created plus (wRC+).  In other words, he’s one of the better players in the SAL.

Estevan Florial

Florial is a 19 year old (very young for the level) outfielder with power, direct from Haiti.  He’s 7^th in the SAL in slugging percentage and wRC+, 6^th in OPS, and 10^th in OBP.  This is the kid to watch on this team.

Other players of note:

Although I’ll have my eyes on Wagner and Florial, there are some other interesting players here…

Hoy Jun Park is a middle infielder who’s 6^th in the SAL in OBP.  We are now all conditioned to see a player who can play multiple positions with a high OBP and think of Ben Zobrist and Marwin Gonzalez.

Brian Keller is the River Dog’s best pitcher, as he’s top ten in the SAL in K per 9, K/BB ratio and K%.  But he is 23 (old for the level) and was a 39^th round draft pick.  In other words, it’s very unlikely we’ll ever see him in the Bronx.

Thanks as usual to Baseball Reference and Fangraphs for the numbers.

*Weighted runs created plus is another stat I like.  It takes into account every offensive event, weights them, and factors in the league and park contexts in which they took place.