Who should lead off? Not who you think.

I started to write about the Yankees lineup in general, in terms of who should be batting where in the order.  Then a wave of injuries and physical issues occurred forcing the Yankees to have different players in the lineup pretty much every day, so I held off.

But I did notice something else: The Yankees don’t have a leadoff hitter.  At least not one that you would say, this guy is our best leadoff hitter, run him out there in the #1 spot every day.

The Yankees best leadoff hitters, obviously would be Aaron Judge, Matt Holliday and Gary Sanchez, in that order.  But their value in the #2 spot (Judge) and either 3 and 4 or 4 and 5 (Sanchez/Holliday) is too great to have them lead off.  More on this later, but Aaron Judge needs to bat second every game.  Not doing this isn’t far behind only using your closer with a lead in the 9^th inning logic, which isn’t very solid logic.

But injuries, you say.  OK, understood.  Let’s assume everyone is healthy.  Who is your best leadoff hitter?  The answer is still the same – you don’t have one who stands out on your roster.

Let’s start by defining what skills a good leadoff hitter needs.  For 100 years, being the fastest guy on the team made you the leadoff hitter – this is rather misguided.

A leadoff hitter gets a lot of at bats with no one on base, due to leading off the game and batting after the worst hitters.  With no one on base a walk is more valuable than a single, due to forcing the pitcher to throw more pitches.  So we need a player who gets a lot of base on balls, and sees a lot of pitches.

A leadoff hitter needs to be a good baserunner.  Not a fast baserunner necessarily, and definitely not a base stealer.  An efficient baserunner.  One who won’t run into an out.  One who knows when to try for 3^rd vs. holding at 2^nd or trying to score vs. holding at 3^rd.  This is crucial as the 2^nd, 3^rd and 4^th batters presumably will have high slugging percentages and will being getting hits that provide the opportunity to advance multiple bases in one play.

You do not want a base stealer here.  With your best hitters coming up it is not worth the risk of running into an out.  Additionally, and quite obviously to most of us, even a successful steal affords the opposing pitcher the opportunity to pitch around your best hitter.  Frankly, I’m OK with water boarding for anyone who gets caught stealing when Judge is at the plate, as Aaron Hicks did in the Los Angeles series.

And it goes without saying, the primary job of a leadoff hitter is to get on base.  On base percentage is a significant factor when choosing.  But again, a player who’s high OBP that comes from many walks is a better leadoff option than a player who’s high OBP comes from many singles.  The singles hitter has more value later in the lineup with guys on base.  Think Wade Boggs, not Ichiro.

So let’s look at the Yankees options, again assuming all are healthy.

Aaron Hicks, Chase Headley, Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner.  Yes, Chase Headley. I’ll mention Tyler Wade later as an interesting option.

Hicks has by far the highest OBP.  He sees the second most pitches in the group and walks the most of the group.  Problem? He’s the worst baserunner by far.  Also, having the most power among those names makes him valuable elsewhere in the lineup.

It should also be noted that Hicks is the best overall offensive player of the group.  This is significant – the leadoff hitter will get more plate appearances than anyone else so being an impact offensive player is a big factor.

Headley, along with Gardner, are the best baserunners of the group.  But Headley’s OBP and walk percentage are better than both Gardner’s and Ellsbury’s.

Gardner sees the most pitches and is a good baserunner.  But his OBP, which has been plummeting, is the lowest of the group and he doesn’t get many walks – only 11% of his at bats.

Ellsbury has an average OBP, he’s an average baserunner, he’s average with regards to pitches seen and he’s average at getting bases on balls.  In other words, he’s the worst option of the four.

So what do I think?

I think Chase Headley should be leading off.  It’s a coin flip between he and Gardner, but a) Headley’s OBP and walk percentage are higher, b) Gardner’s power edge and base stealing edge make him more valuable than Headley is lower in the order. 

Obviously, pitching matchups would factor in, as would Headley’s switch hitting ability depending on the other 8 guys playing that day.  It’s a toss up, but put a gun to my head and it’s Chase.

It would not be Hicks for me.  His power and switch hitting ability would suit the team better somewhere between 3, 4, and 5.  Plus, as noted, he is not a good base runner.

Ellsbury should never lead off a game.  His only upsides are a) his base stealing ability, and b) he swings more and makes contact more than the others.  Both of those skills have much more of an impact lower in the lineup than they do at the top.  Frankly, putting him in front of players like Castro and Gregorius in the lineup would be the best way to maximize his skills.

I left Tyler Wade out because 70 games in AAA isn’t enough to go on for me yet, but…

He did have a .390 OBP (very good, but atypical for his career) and he’s average at seeing pitches, base running, and walk rate.  It’s also worth noting, he’s been young for each level at which he’s played in the minors – may indicate he’s more advanced than his stats suggest. Depending on how he performs over the next few weeks, he may be worth a look see.

Thanks to Fangraphs for the stats, and to Tom Tango, Mitchel Lichtman, and Andrew Dolphin, authors of "The Book" for the background information.