Yankees offense - good news, bad news.

It's approximately the 1/3 mark of the MLB season and the Yankees have one of the best offenses and one of the best teams overall, in baseball.  This affords us the pleasant opportunity to think about what holes and/or problems may hold them back from October success.  Again, a fun problem and discussion to have, since clearly the positives far outweigh the negatives on this team.

I’ve discussed this recently, so I won’t re-hash too much, but the Yankee outfield is not only the best in baseball this season, but would be one of the best of all time if they continue to perform over the final 2/3 of the season as they have thus far.  Yes, seriously – one of the best ever.

For some perspective, the 1961 Yankees with Mantle, Maris and Berra in the outfield (ever hear of those guys?) had a combined 17.4 wins above replacement.  Aaron Judge, Aaron Hicks and Brett Gardner are on pace for 25 wins above replacement this season.

Among active AL outfielders, Judge is 1^st in WAR, Hicks 4^th and Gardner 5^th.  Yes, not counting the disabled Mike Trout the Yankees have 3 of the best 4 outfielders in the American League.  (Bonus points if you can tell me who the other is without checking…)

Although I do believe that Judge, Hicks and Gardner are not flukes and will continue to play well, believing they will continue to perform at THAT high a level is unrealistic.

So the real question is can the infielders pick it up?  Because the problem with the OF being as dominant as they’ve been, is that it’s masked how awful the Yankee infield is.

Infielders – the good, the bad and the ugly…

The Good: Didi.

Didi Gregorius is a slightly better than average major leaguer, meaning he’s a good shortstop.  Among the 27 major league shortstops with as many plate appearances as Didi, he’s 8^th in OPS and on base percentage and 7^th in slugging percentage.  If you factor in the time he missed, he’s about a three win player.  If he’s the best player on your team, you have a crappy team, but with this outfield, Didi will do fine, as long as his career arc still leans towards improvement.

The Bad: Starlin Castro. 

Castro spent one month playing like Rogers Hornsby.  Since then he’s been Starlin Castro, which also previously discussed, is a below average player.  Since May 7^th, his on base percentage has dropped 52 points, his slugging percentage has dropped 66 points, his OPS+ has dropped 40 points.  Expect him to continue the downward trend to his career norms.

The ugly: Headley, Carter, Torreyes.

Let’s get Ronald Torreyes out of the way first, as he’s the non-regular.  He has a .298 OBP, .363 SLG, and a 76 OPS+.  100 OPS+ is league average.  So no, Torreyes is not a major league player however much you root for the little guy, figuratively or literally.

Chase Headley has a negative .1 WAR.  Negative.  As a reminder, the measuring stick term of “replacement player” means Joe Average AAA player.  So yes, Headley is worse than a minor leaguer at this point.  He has an OPS+ of 71 (worse than Torreyes, somehow) and he’s a train wreck defensively.

Chris Carter, if you can imagine, is worse than Torreyes and Headley.  Among 28 Major League 1B with as much playing time as he, he’s 27^th in OBP, SLG and dead last in OPS+.  A man who led the NL in HR last year currently has a 68 OPS+.

So under the assumption that Judge, Hicks and Gardner will come back to the pack a little, can the Yankees make that up with their infielders?

Possible.  If we’re talking about Gleyber Torres, Rob Refsnyder and Greg Bird.

Is Torres ready to play in the big leagues?  Maybe, maybe not, but it’s hard to believe he wouldn’t be better than Headley.  Remember, Headley is worse than Joe minor leaguer.

Refsnyder may have limitations, but unlike Headley, Carter and Torreyes, he gets on base.

And Bird is the question mark on which much of this hinges.  But again, hard to believe he won’t be better than Carter upon his return.

If the Yankees can get any production from those three they should be able to stay among baseball’s leaders in runs scored.  But I’m going to be the glass half full guy and say they all will produce, and the Yankee’s “O” will be just fine.

As usual, thanks to baseball reference for the numbers.