The identity of the human wind parachute should come as no
surprise to you. The Yankees with their
success in 2017 have reached a critical time in how they handle the albatross
of Jacoby Ellsbury. Prior to this year,
due to a combination of low team expectations and the lack of depth, sending
him out there every day…just…because…could have been justified with a shoulder
shrug.
Not anymore. The
Yankees are one of the best teams in baseball and are surely looking at the big
picture for 2017 – i.e. October. Combine
that with the Yankees’ new found very deep and very talented outfield roster
and now Ellsbury’s play is a problem.
I won’t go into beating a dead horse too much about Ellsbury
and his lack of production over the course of his Yankee career. But I did check, and I’ll leave it at
this: He’s playing better this season
than at any point in his Yankee career – and he’s still only an average major
league player, at best.
Again, if you had low expectations for your team, or if you
had plus players at all other positions, or if you had zero outfield depth, you
may be able to live with it. But none of
the above is true. The Yankees have high
expectations for the team, they have below major league level performances at
3B and 1B (and for the next 3 months, probably 2B too), and have some SERIOUS
depth among their outfield roster.
To the 3rd point…
The Yankees have 3 of the best 10 outfielders in baseball.
No, that’s not a misprint.
Among major league outfielders with a minimum of 144 plate appearances, 2017
WAR rankings, Aaron Judge is #2, Brett Gardner is #6 and Aaron Hicks is
#11. Given that Hicks has been on the
field less often than any of the 10 players above him, to me that means he’s
played better than some of them. I’ll
come back to that…
The Yankees simply cannot afford to have Ellsbury taking at
bats away from any of those three. It
simply will cost the team wins.
What about the need for a 4th outfielder you ask?
Currently in AAA, Dustin Fowler has a .351 on base
percentage, .581 slugging percentage for an OPS of .933. Clint Frazier is dealing a .335 OBP, .506
SLG, .841 OPS season. Both have above
average range as outfielders.
The Yankees HAVE to find a way to convince another team to
take Ellsbury off their hands, even if it means eating the bulk of his
salary. His presence is literally
costing them wins in a season where you’ll need all of them.
I’m not going to do Brian Cashman’s research for him, but I
would watch Kansas City. If they
continue to play poorly, they’ll become deadline sellers, and they have several
free agents that would be big chips for contending teams – CF Lorenzo Cain
being one of them. Maybe the Yankees can
pull off a 3 team deal, with Cain going to a contender that needs a CF. KC may be interested in taking Ellsbury to
simply fill the spot short term, while the Yankees eat the salary. Maybe KC they can even get cash from the
third team…
Back to Aaron
Hicks. Aaron Hicks is the most
underrated player in baseball.
As I mentioned, Hicks has contributed more to his teams wins
than 60 of the other 70 outfielders in baseball with a minimum of 144 plate
appearances. Aaron Hicks has 144 plate
appearances exactly, meaning the other 70 have had more opportunities to contribute.
As a reference, he has a higher WAR than Charlie Blackmon,
George Springer, Giancarlo Stanton and Ben Zobrist – all bona fide, or emerging
stars.
He’s third among MLB OF in on base percentage, only behind
Mike Trout and Bryce Harper.
He’s 5th in OPS+, 6th in OPS, 9th
in slugging percentage.
And if you’re wondering if he’s going through a hot streak
where he’s finding holes, he’s hitting .298 on batted balls in play, which is
in the bottom half of MLB outfielders and below league average. In other words, he’s been unlucky.
Throw in that he’s a switch hitter who can play three
positions at about a league average level - that adds immense value to a team
that’s virtually impossible to grade numerically. I’ll let Joe Girardi explain the ways in
which that flexibility helps both in single game management and long term
planning.
If the Yankees are serious about winning in 2017, we’re
going to need to see more of Aaron Hicks and (much) less of Jacoby Ellsbury.
Thanks as always to baseball reference for the numbers.
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