I hear you – you know how bad C.C. has been this year.
No, I don’t think you do.
Let’s take a look back for just a second: 2016 looked like what may have been an
average season for C.C. - he was middle of the road in most baseball card stats - but it’s easy to make the case he got lucky. Among 39
pitchers who qualified for the E.R.A title last season, he had a low batting average
on balls in play (16th), benefitted from many double plays* (6th)
and allowed a high opponents’ on base percentage (27th).
In other words, he allowed many base runners, many balls
were hit at fielders, and many double plays were turned.
This season he hasn’t been quite as lucky. Frankly, he’s been terrible. The extent to which is probably flying under
the radar because of the Yankees good start as a team.
Out of 50 American League pitchers who currently qualify for
the American League ERA title, C.C is 45th in fielding independent
pitching, 47th in ERA+, 42nd in strikeouts per 9 innings,
46th in strikeout to walk ratio, 47th in strikeout percentage,
45th in opponents’ on base percentage* and 34th in balls
grounded into double plays.
If you’re new to those numbers they mean this: He doesn’t miss bats, he walks guys and gives
up home runs. That’s a bad combination. Basically, he’s in the 2nd tier in the discussion of worst
American League starting pitchers.
Those last two numbers in particular – opponents on base
percentage and balls grounded into double plays are huge – it’s the difference
between this year and last.
He’s allowing batters to reach base .354 percent of the
time. To put this in perspective, the
Nationals and the Yankees are first and second respectively in the Major League
in runs scored. Not coincidentally, they
are also first and second in on base percentage, at .359 and .356 respectively.
So essentially every time C.C. takes the hill, the other
team is just as good as the Nationals and Yankees offensively.
Bottom line: Last year men were put on base, balls were hit
at fielders, double plays were turned.
This year, men are put on base, balls are hit in gaps, many
runs are allowed.
Admittedly, (as I’ve said before) being bad among regular
starting pitchers doesn’t necessarily mean you’re bad. You certainly may be better than all other
pitchers who aren’t good enough to get that may innings in the first place. But in the case of the Yankees, I think you
have someone that would do better with the same workload.
Paging Adam Warren.
I understand it’s only 17 innings in 2017 so far for Warren,
but it’s been a dominant 17 innings for him.
And as of this writing, he does have 373 career big league innings and
is above major league averages in fielding independent pitching and ERA+. In 2015 with the Yankees, in 17 starts, Warren was better than
league average in most serious categories including a very impressive 124
ERA+.
Perhaps instead of looking outside
the organization for a starter to bolster the rotation, perhaps just look to
Warren. C.C., as a lefty who can handle
multiple innings may be more valuable in relief.**
As usual, I’d love to hear your thoughts.
Random note: Watch
C.C’s pitches up and away to right handed batters. He’s getting killed there. He yields the highest exit velocity, the
highest batting average and the fewest swings and misses of any other area of
the strike zone.
*I know, one could argue that inducing double plays is a
skill. But that’s kinda’ like saying a
fighter has a great chin – it’s a back handed compliment – it means he gets hit
cleanly a lot. You have to allow a lot
of base runners on in the first place to get a lot of double plays.
**Yes, I understand there are intangible issues to players
and teams when asking a player like C.C. to take a demotion.
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