Starlin Castro: Under the Radar Quandary

Author’s note:  I wrote this the day before opening day, 2017.  Now that we’re about one sixth into the season and around 100 at bats, I’ll update this in a few days.  Given Castro’s start, I’m as curious as anyone to see to what extent his success will be maintained.

Players currently on the Yankees’ roster who haven’t lived up to expectations aren’t exactly a rarity.  Due to this, and perhaps because it’s not as glaring as the under achievement of Jacoby Ellsbury and others, the lack of production from Starlin Castro has flown under the radar to this point.

An examination of his contributions show there aren’t too many positives on which a Castro supporter can hang his hat.  His HR production in 2016 wasn’t the glass half full many believed it to be (more below), his durability - he’s averaged 153 games played over the last six seasons, 151 last season as a Yankee - is really only a positive if production comes along with it, and his young age might otherwise suggest we can expect improvement. 

Except for the minor detail that despite his relative youth, he’s career has shown regression, not progression to this point.

In fact, Castro has been a completely different player in the past four seasons than he was in his first three, and not for the better.  Consider his first three season averages compared to the last 4 seasons:

On Base Percentage .337 first three seasons, .305 since.

Slugging Percentage .423/.398

OPS+ 104/91

WAR season average 2.67/.88

Defensive WAR .4/-1

His supporters might say he bounced back with 21 HR last season with the Yankees and that, combined with his youth may point to an upcoming progression in his production.

I would say “not so fast”…

In fact, his 21 HR were 8^th among eleven regular American League second basemen in 2016, so even his apparent positive was below average among his peers.  Using statistics that I feel are more accurate representations of actual contributions, among eleven American League second basemen who logged 400 plate appearances and played 80% of their games at 2B in 2016, Castro ranked:

9^th in On Base Percentage.

10^th in Runs Created, Defensive WAR, Defensive Runs Saved.

Dead last in Slugging, OPS+, WAR, and base running.

And with a batting average of balls in play of .305, it wasn’t as if he were hitting with tough luck.

In fact, one could argue his only true positive is that he was an upgrade from Stephen Drew.  Insert your sarcastic joke here:

In all fairness, it has to be mentioned that being among the bottom of regulars means you may be better than many who aren’t good enough to be regulars, and with that, you might draw the conclusion he’s better than other available options for the Yankees.

But it does beg the question, as long as the Yankees are in their version of rebuilding, should Rob Refsnyder to get more playing time at 2B? 

Refsnyder’s MLB sample size is small, but his OBP of .332 over 222 plate appearances is much better than Castro’s.  Additionally, over three minor league seasons in which most of his plate appearances were in AAA, he posted seasons of .387, .359 and .365 OBP.  To me, this suggests he has a propensity to reach base at a better rate than Castro.  And with respect to that and the other numbers, could he be worse?

I’m not the agent representing Rob Refsnyder, but it does appear the issue is worth some discussion.

Thanks to Baseball Reference for the statistics.