One third of the way through...

Memorial Day review and preview

Decided to go in a slightly different direction today, since there’s nothing to discuss about the Yankees that isn’t already being discussed ad nauseum:  Aaron Judge is having the best season any righty Yankee right fielder has ever had. Yep, better than any that Bob Meusel, Dave Winfield or Gary Sheffield had.

The countdown to a Bronx Gleyber Torres sighting is quickening with the decline of Chase Headley combined with Ronald Torreyes’ general inefficiency and low ceiling.

Starlin Castro has crashed back to earth after spending 6 weeks playing like Rogers Hornsby.  He’s returned to playing like…well…Starlin Castro – which isn’t a compliment.

So I’m going to briefly discuss two other topics today, MLB related, as we reach the unofficial one-third mark of the 2017 season.  (Although one of them concerns the Yankees…)

First: Mike Trout

Mike Trout is 25 years old.  He’ll turn 26 on August 7^th.

Mike Trout has accomplished more than any player in the history of the sport at that age.

I’ll allow a moment for that to waft over you.

No player who’s played since electricity was invented has had 4 seasons of 9 or higher WAR at that age. (Rogers Hornsby and Ty Cobb had 4 each.)  Mike Trout has had 4 and is on pace for his 5^th this season.

In the history of the game, only Mickey Mantle, Babe Ruth, Rogers Hornsby, Ted Williams and Ty Cobb had two 10 win seasons by that age.

Trout has had two and is on pace for his third this season – he’ll end up with 10.5 at his current 2017 rate.

Which brings me to…

He’s having his best season.  He’s actually getting better.  He’s on pace to have personal single season highs in HR, batting average, on base percentage, slugging percentage, on base plus slugging (OPS) and OPS+.

So at the risk of beating a dead horse, when you get a chance to watch this guy play – do it.  We’re watching one of the best ever and most of us don’t realize it.

Who is the best team in baseball?

It’s not too early to start thinking about the post season, especially around here.

So that got me thinking:  Who is the best team in baseball, and perhaps more importantly, on whom do we need to keep our eyes?

As to the first question, the contenders for Memorial Day title of best team in baseball are in no particular order, Washington, Houston, LA Dodgers and the Yankees.

They are top 4 in run differential – a number that historically correlates to teams’ long term, full season success.

According to Baseball reference, they rank first through fourth in simple rating system which combines run differential with strength of schedule.  More specifically, the Yankees are ranked as the best team in this category largely due to their difficult schedule thus far.  They’ve had the 5^th hardest schedule in all of baseball so far this year – the other three teams are in the bottom six – i.e., they’ve had very easy schedules.

Wondering if any of them have been lucky?

When comparing run differential to actual wins and losses, Houston has been the luckiest team in baseball.  They actually should have around three wins fewer than they do.  Conversely, the Dodgers are actually playing with poor luck – they have three fewer wins than would be expected based on their run differential.

And not surprisingly, the four are near the top in team on base percentage and they are numbers 1-4 in pitchers' WHIP (walks plus hits divided by innings pitched).  There is some serious significance to those numbers.  There is only one statistic that year in and year out correlates directly to runs scored and runs prevented:  How many batters your team gets on base and how many do your pitchers prevent from reaching base.

Bottom line:  The Yankees, Houston, Washington and the Dodgers are the best teams in baseball and there’s no reason to expect that to change – great news if you root for any of those teams.

As to the question of who do we need to watch…

Are there teams out there who are flying under the radar who we can expect to join this discussion as the season moves on?  I like two teams to fit this bill:

The Diamondbacks are 5^th in baseball in run differential.  They’re in the middle of the schedule strength pack so they haven’t been beating up on weaklings.  Baseball Reference currently has them ranked right behind the aforementioned four teams in their simple rating system.  They are 9^th and 7^th in baseball in team OBP and WHIP – so they get runners on and they prevent them from getting on pretty efficiently.

They also have one of their best players (one of the more underrated in baseball - A.J. Pollock) returning soon.

But perhaps even more importantly than that, they have Princeton graduate Mike Hazen as a GM making decisions.  To say that’s a major upgrade over self-described “real baseball man” Dave Stewart is a huge understatement.  When/if moves need to be made in July, they’re in good hands.

Don’t sleep on the Sawx…

Boston is 8^th in run differential despite facing a relatively tough schedule. 

As far as the numbers I love, the get on base more frequently than any team in baseball.  They are among the leaders in not chasing pitches outside the strike zone, and taking pitches in general.

They’re also 3^rd in MLB in percentage of batted balls that are line drives, so despite their below league average team slugging percentage, they’re hitting the ball hard - expect the slg % to rise.

And among reasons for optimism (if you’re a Sox fan) is that Hanley Ramirez has picked it up lately, David Price is returning.  And Dustin Pedroia is going to produce more over the next two thirds of the season than he has thus far.  He’s in the top ten among second basemen in line drive percentage and is currently slugging at a very low .382 rate.  Expect him to get closer to his career .443 rate, especially if he’s hitting the ball as hard as he is.

And as we know about Boston, they have the mindset and resources to bolster the roster in July as needed.

A lot has to go right for Boston to win it this year, but Fangraphs has them as twice as likely to win the World Series as the Yankees.  And the folks at Fangraphs are pretty smart.

As always, thanks to Baseball Reference and Fangraphs for the numbers.