So Starlin Castro was awful in 2016. Yes, seriously – see my previous blog. But nobody really noticed or cared because he
was better than Stephen Drew. But in
2017, we’ve seen a much different and much better Starlin Castro.
As of this writing, he’s had 107 plate appearances, 100 at
bats, and played in 25 games – essentially one sixth of a season based on his
average career games played.
He’s hit for a .360 batting average, 5 home runs and 16 runs
batted in. Extrapolated to a full
season, that’s 30HR and 96 RBI – not bad for a 2nd baseman. But let’s be honest, none of those numbers
are fair indicators of performance. For
the most part, they are made up of part player skill and a large part of
circumstances beyond that player’s control.
So let’s look numbers that are less at the mercy of outside
circumstances: On Base Percentage, Slugging Percentage, On base plus slugging,
On base plus and slugging adjusted from this season compared to his career
averages (and in a minute, we’ll look at what pitches he’s swinging at, what
he’s hitting and how hard he’s hitting it):
Castro this season compared to his career averages:
OBP - .402 this season, .320 career average.
SLG - .550/.412
OPS - .952/.732
OPS+ - 160/98
Quick side notes: At
a salary of $9.8 million this year, production like this over 162 games is a
steal. Only Morgan, Grich, and Kent have
had seasons of 160 or higher OPS+ as a 2B since World War II.
To put his 2017 success into further perspective, among 23
regular second baseman, he currently ranks 2nd in OBP, SLG, OPS and
OPS+. (Second only to Murphy or Altuve
in those categories.)
So what could be the difference between this season’s
success and last year’s lack thereof?
Besides the obvious: it’s a small sample size and most
players revert to the mean of their careers, let’s get more specific:
For starters, he’s swinging at fewer pitches outside the
strike zone compared to last season, but only marginally (33% from 36%). And this is hard to believe, since I still
think he swings at everything…
He’s also making more contact. The percentage of balls he
swings at and puts in play is up from last year - up to 83% from 78%
These are good things of course. Problem is he isn’t hitting the ball any
harder.
Among all MLB 2B, he’s 15th in line drive
percentage and 16th in percentage of balls hit that are hit hard. So he’s putting more balls in play, but not hitting them any
harder. And both his line drive percentage and hard hit balls percentage are down from his own numbers in '16.
Which leads to BABIP…
Batting average on balls in play is literally what it sounds
like. It’s generally a good indication
of whether or not the player’s batted balls are “finding holes”. I.e., “is the player getting lucky?”
Castro’s 2017 BABIP is .397.
That’s 3rd highest among 2B, and 14th in MLB among
all players. It’s also 92 points higher
than his BABIP last year (Castro’s BABIP last year was about the league
average.)
In other words, his BABIP so far this season is very high.
So if I’m being asked if I’m buying or selling Starlin
Castro, I’m selling.
To me it’s a simple equation: He’s not hitting the ball any harder than he
has in the past but the ball is finding holes.
In other words, he’s been getting
lucky. Expect that to change.
Perhaps there have been tactical and philosophical
adjustments at the plate that have led to more discipline and higher contact
percentage. Let’s hope so. But even so, that wouldn’t justify the enormous jump in production this season.
I’d say go with Castro’s history, especially recent history,
and expect the first month of his 2017 campaign to be an aberration.
See also; Ian Desmond 2016.
Thanks to Baseball Reference and Fangraphs for the numbers.
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