Need pitching? Or got pitching?

More than a few people have mentioned their concerns to me about what, if anything, the Yankees should do regarding their starting pitching.  I.e., should they make a move at the trade deadline to bolster the rotation for a playoff run?

Obviously, we have to see how this plays out as there’s a long way to go with regards to both team and individuals’ performance that would dictate who’s available come July.  That being said, I’ll going to tackle this in two parts:

One – Are we trying to solve a problem that doesn’t exist?

First, let’s look at team performance:  As a team, the Yankees are 3^rd in MLB in ERA+, 5^th in strikeout to walk ratio and 6^th in fielding independent pitching.  If you want to look at the team’s performance as a whole with regards to run prevention, the Yankees are 2^nd in baseball – 1^st in the American League - in runs allowed per game.

But you’re concerned about the rotation, not the bullpen and defense?  OK, I’ll play along…

Out of 82 MLB pitchers who currently qualify for the ERA title, the Yankees have 4: Luis Severino, Michael Pineda, C.C. Sabathia and MashiroTanaka.  (I’ll get to Jordan Montgomery, who falls just short of qualifying, in a moment…)

• In ERA+, Severino, Pineda and Sabathia are all in the top third of MLB.  Actually Severino is in the top 10%, sitting at #7 overall.
• In fielding independent pitching the same three are all in the top half of MLB, with Severino leading the way again at 14^th overall.
• In strikeout to walk ratio, all 4 are above league average, with Severino coming in at 9th overall and Pineda 11^th overall.

So, when league run scoring environment and park factors are considered, they don’t allow many runs, they are successful at the factors they control, and they miss bats without putting runners on.

Here are some additional things to consider:

1. Jordan Montgomery is above league average in all the above statistics.
2. They pitch in the American League – the above ranks factor in pitchers who regularly face other pitchers.
3. You can certainly say Tanaka is a problem.  But we can also say Severino is the legitimate ace that Tanaka is not thus far this year.  It’s fair to be both half full and half empty: Tanaka may stink and Severino may return to earth, but Tanaka may improve and Severino may be this good, as well.

And before we discuss looking at other starting pitchers outside the pinstripe world, remember Chance Adams and Adam Warren.  Adams is dominating AAA after dominating AA, and Warren is still on your team.  And as I’ve previously pointed out, Adam Warren has succeeded in whichever role he’s been placed, including starting.

But let’s assume we’re still talking about the Steinbrenner’s and panic will set in.  The mindset of “let’s do something” even if doing nothing is the better option will always be around this crew.

Part II – there’s isn’t a good fit out there.

Of starting pitchers in MLB who a) have enough innings to qualify, b) play for teams we can reasonably assume will be out of contention in July, and c) are in the top half of pitchers in ERA+, there are none who are good fits, and only one I would consider if the cost involved a serious prospect.  Don’t even ask me – Dustin Fowler, Clint Frazier, Chance Adams, Jorge Mateo, both Tylers (Wade and Austin), aren’t going anywhere.

There’s Jason Vargas, age 34, 12 year vet.  Has pitched well for 2 months of that 12 years.

Jamie Garcia will be a free agent at the end of this season.  We ain’t renting for a prospect.

Danny Duffy currently has elbow problems.

I like Edinson Volquez but would have too high an asking price given his resume and contract.

Derek Holland is unreliable and only has one good season on his resume.

Dan Straily is interesting, but I’m not giving up any of the aforementioned prospects for him.

And for those who’ve specifically asked about Gerrit Cole and Jeff Samardzija: neither are upgrades over your current staff.

Ivan Nova is interesting, if you can get past the irony.  Very good pitcher with a very team friendly contract.  My guess is Pittsburgh would hang on to him or ask for the moon in return.

Other things to keep in mind when contemplating a deal like this:

1. The above pitchers are worth about 2 to 3 wins per season.  The prospect position players mentioned should be better, and…
2. …for a longer period.  Starting pitchers are fragile.  Not that long ago Anthony Rizzo for Matt Harvey or Mookie Betts for Noah Syndergaard wouldn’t have even been considered.

Again, things need to play out more, but I like where the Yankees are.

Thanks to Baseball Reference as usual for the numbers.