The real reason the Yankees lost yesterday

You’re correct: Michael Pineda allowing 3 HR in 4 innings created a big problem.  But the Yankees got past that with a great bullpen performance and offense.  They were in a position to win despite Pineda.

Chase Headley being thrown out attempting to steal with one out in the 6^th inning when trailing 7-4 didn’t help either.  (More on this later, because that wasn’t a bad play on Headley’s part in my mind…)

Of course, the masters of the obvious over at Simpleton Summer Camp (the YES network) obsessed on those two points both during and after the game.

But I’m here to tell you the real reason the Yankees lost yesterday was because of the best defensive play you saw all year, that to my knowledge, wasn’t mentioned or acknowledged on the live broadcast or on the post-game activities at Simpleton Summer Camp.

With the Yankees trailing 7-5 with two outs and runners on 1^st and 2^nd base (Gary Sanchez and Aaron Judge, respectively) and Didi Gregorius at the plate, the game was decided by a phenomenal multi-part defensive play.

Gregorius lined a single to right field, fielded by Texas right fielder Shin Soo Choo.  Judge rounded 3^rd and was on his way to scoring, Sanchez rounded 2^nd headed for 3rd.  Choo, knowing that a) Judge runs well and was going to score anyway, and far more importantly b) Sanchez was the tying run, and does not run well, threw to 3^rd.

Very unscientifically, I would guess that outfielders throw home 9 times out of 10 in that situation.  And almost invariably, the runner scores and the other two runners advance to 2^nd and 3^rd.

What would’ve happened then?

With runners on 2^nd and 3^rd with 2 outs, teams score an average of .634 runs.

That’s average.  The Yankees had a player coming to the plate who was in the middle of a 3 for 4 day (Headley) against a Texas pitcher (Alex Claudio) who doesn’t strike many batters out.  So there was a better than average chance there that the Yankees either tie or take the lead, if Choo had thrown home.

But that’s not what he did.  Choo threw a laser to Adrian Beltre at 3^rd, and Gary Sanchez was out.

And with that, the Yankees run expectancy went from .634 or better runs to ZERO.  Inning over.

And to make the play even more impressive, Choo’s throw was slightly off line and slightly short, forcing Beltre to make a back hand short hop play on a throw from right field before making a tag.  He did, and that’s one of many reasons Adrian Beltre is somewhere between #5 and #10 on the best third baseman of all-time list.  Yes, that’ll be another blog.

Now, I’m admittedly overstating the importance of a single play on a game’s outcome.  There are innumerable variables and dozens of plays that combine to factor in to who won and who lost – this game was no different.

But this was a great dammed play by Choo and Beltre.  Heads up, great decision making and awesome athletic skills made it a sight to see.  And although it wasn’t the only reason the Yankees lost, it was a vastly understated part of why they lost.

Sometimes the other team is just better.  As I’ve said before, the team that plays better is going to win 9 times out of 10, regardless of Xs and Os strategy.

Speaking of which…

Postscript:  Chase Headley is the best baserunner on the Yankees and one of the better ones in the league.  If he thinks he can get to 2^nd base with the bottom of the order up, where it’s a significantly lower risk, you have to let him go.  It’ll help more often than not.  This time it didn’t.  Like I said above, the other guys get big paychecks too.

Postscript part II:  Somewhat out of character, Joe Girardi had a great game and as a result, the Yankees still had a chance to win a game that they had virtually no chance to earlier.  When Austin Romine came to the plate in the 5th, the Yankees had a 1.9% chance of winning according to Fangraphs – in the bottom of the 8th, it was up to 48%.  This was due in part to Girardi using Dellin Betances in the 8th with the Yankees down a run – i.e., Joe used one of his best when the game was on the line.  This is something he hasn’t done in the past, typically leaving those situations to be handled by the Yankees’ 10th or 11th best pitchers, or a AA pitcher, depending on availability.  Joe made an even gutsier – and smarter – move by bringing in Chapman in to pitch the 9th, still down a run.  That gave the Yankees a real opportunity to win in the bottom of the 9th.

*Thanks to Baseball Reference, “The Book” by Tom Tango and Fangraphs for the #’s.