Tanaka vs. Gausman - what to watch:

Many eyes will be on Masahiro Tanaka today.  As we all know, we don’t need an exhaustive statistical review to know the ace of the staff hasn’t been performing as such.  In mid-June with the Yankees in first place it’s a mild concern.  But again, the Yankees are thinking October this year, and it’s hard to picture them succeeding in October without Tanaka pitching like one of the best pitchers in the American League as he was last season.

Here are a few things to watch for today against Baltimore:

Unlike most pitchers, Tanaka doesn’t rely on one pitch predominantly.  For the most part, Masahiro throws the fastball, slider and splitter about the same percentage of the time.

Although Tanaka’s performance with his fastball this season has been awful – 39^th among 41 qualifying American League pitchers - he may want to utilize it today along with the splitter, more so than the slider.  (Unlike his fastball performance, the results of his splitter have been average compared to other AL starting pitchers so far this season.)

Among 89 qualifiers, Baltimore doesn’t have any batters in the top 25 vs. fastballs or splitters.  As a team they are 11^th in the AL vs. fastballs and 8^th among AL teams vs. the splitter. Their scariness, which hasn’t been that scary this year (11^th in AL in runs scored) has shown itself on breaking balls, predominantly sliders.  Mark Trumbo and Adam Jones specifically, are two of the better slider hitters in the American League.

If Tanaka can limit the number of sliders and/or keep them out of the strike zone for show, watch for him to bounce back with a good start today.  Assuming quality command - which admittedly is a huge assumption based on recent history - being aggressive with the fastball and splitter should reap dividends.

Unlike Tanaka, today’s starter for Baltimore Kevin Gausman throws fastballs predominantly, and ranks 30^th out of 41 qualifiers with the fastball.  That combination has resulted in him having a season similar in unpleasantness to Tanaka.

Problem for the Birds is, the Yankees are the best fastball hitting team in the big leagues.  More specifically, Aaron Judge, Starlin Castro, Matt Holliday and Aaron Hicks are all among the top 15 fastball hitters in the American League.  If Gausman follows his typical plan, he’s probably in for a short afternoon.

However, the Yankees’ kryptonite this season has been the slider.  They rank 13^th among AL teams vs. the slider and have no one player in the top 30 against slider.

It would behoove Gausman to go to his 2^nd most frequent, but still rarely used pitch against the AL’s leading run producers.

Keep an eye out today and let me know what you think.

As usual, thanks to fangraphs for the stats.