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Joey Bullpen and Chase Headley

Two quick hitters for you today:

Never change, Joey Bullpen:

I’ve covered this before, so I’m going to pass over the numbers that say it’s insane to use your best relief pitcher in a game where your team is either leading or trailing by 3 runs or more (that’s a game whose outcome will be the same with 99% of MLB pitchers, 99% of the time).  However, it is absolutely crucial to have him in games where you’re leading or trailing by 2 runs or less, as he gives you a significantly greater advantage than an average pitcher does in that case. 

So I’ll get right to some more information with the aforementioned as a back drop and frame of reference:

Yankees manager Joe Girardi recently said that the “extra wear and tear” of pitching for the Cubs in the World Series last season may be a reason Chapman is struggling this season.  “…sometimes it does catch up to you…”, Joey Bullpen explained.

In fairness, even with missing last April, Chapman did log a career high in innings last year when the regular season and post season were combined.

But whether or not he’s fatigued as a result is an irrelevant question.  The question is, if you believe that to be the case, how do you handle it ongoing?

I’ll tell you how I would NOT handle it, if I believed he were struggling as a residual side effect of over use:

I would not use him in meaningless games.  I know, I’m a crazy person, right?

In 42% of Chapman’s appearances THIS season, Chapman has been used in games where one team led the other by 3 runs or more. 

Essentially, in almost half of his appearances, Chapman - the $86 million dollar man - has been used in mop up duty.

This includes his first 3 appearances of the season in April where he was called on to “close out” games with 5-0, 7-3, and 8-4 leads.

This includes, when after being used against the first place Red Sox on July 14^th, and 15^th he was called on to protect a three run lead on the 16th.  They had another game against Boston later that night, for which he was unavailable.

Maybe it isn’t how Joe Maddon used him.  Just a thought.

I was wrong:

Chase Headley is, in fact, as bad as everyone has told me he is.  Among 19 Major League 3^rd baseman (or, 3^rd “basemens” as Paul O’Neill says) who have qualified for the batting title and have played 80% of their games at 3^rd base:

Headley is 11^th in OBP, 17^th in SLG, 18^th in OPS+, 18^th in WAR, and 18^th in dWAR.

I’m not going to try to do Brian Cashamn’s job for him, but I will say the prognosis is bad if you’re looking to upgrade.  Todd Frazier, Nick Castellanos and Yunel Escobar aren’t much better – definitely not worth giving up a breathing body for.

Thanks to NJ.com and Baseball Reference.

Some "in person" scouting today

I’m going to the Lakewood Blueclaws game this fine, sunny, July Sunday afternoon.  For those of you out of the loop, the ‘claws are the South Atlantic League’s A ball affiliate of the Philadelphia Phillies.  I’ve seen Cole Hamels, Ryan Howard, Carols Carrasco and Michael Bourn among others, go through the ranks.  And for what it’s worth, Carrasco was a sight to see at this level – other A ballers didn’t have a chance against him.  But more importantly than that, the ‘claws let you bring your dog to the game on Sundays, and my wife and I don’t go anywhere without our dogs.

Seriously.

Today, Lakewood are playing the Charelston River Dogs, the Yankees A ball affiliate.  So I figured I’d lose my keyboard expert tag for the day and give you some good ole’ scout sitting in the stands, with a brew, cigar and radar gun perspective.  Even if the reality will be sitting in the grass with my wife and dogs…and a brew and a pizza slice.

So here’s who’ll I’ll be watching, with some general thoughts first:

For pitchers, I (and the people at Baseball Prospectus and Fangraphs) like the ability to miss bats and throw good strikes – in other words, succeed in areas that are somewhat within their control.  So I look at strikeouts per 9 innings, strikeout to walk ratio and independent fielding pitching.

For batters, I tend to agree with the Billy Beane Money ball philosophy that batters either stay in the strike zone or they don’t from the very first time they step in the box as children.  Guys who didn’t when they were kids, never will, even as adults.  So as with the big leaguers, I like on base percentage as a measuring stick.  And generally, because power numbers are much lower in the minors than in the majors, a player with power in the minors is indicative of a power hitter – that may be obvious and/or repetitive, but it’s very true in this case.  If you can hit home runs in A ball, you have power. So again, not unlike how I evaluate the big leagues, slugging percentage, on base plus slugging and weighted runs created plus* are what I look at.

And one more thing of note, thanks to the Baseball Prospectus group:  Player’s age relative to the average age of players in the league is a huge indicator of future performance.  I.e., if the average age of the South Atlantic League players is 21.5, and a 19 year old is dominating the league, that’s an enormous boost to his value as it indicates he’s very likely to see the show at some point.  (As opposed to a player who is 23 and doing well at the same level…)

With that in mind:

Brandon Wagner

Wagner is an infielder from New Jersey’s own Immaculata high school who was a 6^th round pick of the Yankees.  He’s 21 which is -.5 years under average for the SAL.  Brandon leads the South Atlantic League in OBP, and he’s 11^th in weighted runs created plus (wRC+).  In other words, he’s one of the better players in the SAL.

Estevan Florial

Florial is a 19 year old (very young for the level) outfielder with power, direct from Haiti.  He’s 7^th in the SAL in slugging percentage and wRC+, 6^th in OPS, and 10^th in OBP.  This is the kid to watch on this team.

Other players of note:

Although I’ll have my eyes on Wagner and Florial, there are some other interesting players here…

Hoy Jun Park is a middle infielder who’s 6^th in the SAL in OBP.  We are now all conditioned to see a player who can play multiple positions with a high OBP and think of Ben Zobrist and Marwin Gonzalez.

Brian Keller is the River Dog’s best pitcher, as he’s top ten in the SAL in K per 9, K/BB ratio and K%.  But he is 23 (old for the level) and was a 39^th round draft pick.  In other words, it’s very unlikely we’ll ever see him in the Bronx.

Thanks as usual to Baseball Reference and Fangraphs for the numbers.

*Weighted runs created plus is another stat I like.  It takes into account every offensive event, weights them, and factors in the league and park contexts in which they took place.

Michael Pineda - what you're missing:

With Michael Pineda being diagnosed with an ulnar collateral tear in his elbow, his immediate future is up in the air*.  None of us know what the length of his absence will be, but for the sake of discussion, let’s assume the worst:  If he’s gone for an extended period, what exactly do you the Yankees need to replace?

Almost all references from Simpleton Summer Camp (the Yes Network), mass media and fans refer to his inconsistency.  Lots of strikeouts, but lots of home runs and runs allowed.  Of course, because of the nature of Simpleton Summer Camp and the fans, the very significant and relevant issues of his body language and how he wears his hat arise.

(Pinches bridge of nose…)

If you are indeed among the camp of not liking his body language, how her wears his hat, or his inconsistency, here’s what you need to know:

Three and a half seasons, in my mind anyway, is a good enough sample size to judge what a player is going to give you, inconsistencies aside.  In Pineda’s case, here’s what he’s given you – in other words, here’s what you need to replace:

Among American League starting pitchers between 2014 and 2017, with 500 innings pitched over that span, Pineda is:

• 9^th in Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) among 27 who fit the criteria.
• 5^th in strikeout percentage (only behind Chris Sale, Corey Kluber, Chris Archer, and David Price – ever hear of those guys?).
• 2^nd in strikeout to walk ratio, behind Chris Sale only.

On an open market, his performance over those 3 and a half seasons would be worth $78 million.

The Yankees have paid him $14 million over that time.

And it should go without saying, if you’re one of 27 pitchers who are good enough to be run out there every 5th day for 3.5 years, that alone makes you one of the best in the league.

So great, you don’t like Pineda.  Replace him.

Find an available pitcher who’s going to be among the best in the league in categories over which he has control:  Missing bats and not putting anyone on base himself.  And oh, by the way, that pitcher needs to play for $64 million under market value.

In other words, get Tampa to trade Archer or Cleveland to trade Kluber to the Yankees for the equivalent of Jesus Montero.  Remember him?  The guy for whom the Yankees acquired Pineda, who isn’t in baseball anymore.

I get it.  As a fan, Pineda can be frustrating.  But as fans we tend to believe our eyes, which are poor judges of performance – follow the numbers, and Pineda is a very tough player to replace.

Thanks to Fangraphs and Baseball Reference for the stats.

*UCL issues do not have a standard treatment.  Short term rehabilitation may work, sometimes Tommy John surgery and a long recovery is required.

Tyler Wade for Garrett Cooper

Yankee General Manager Brian Cashman has traded left handed relief pitcher Tyler Webb to the Milwaukee Brewers for first baseman Garrett Cooper.  In doing so, Cashman has reduced the number of “Tylers” on the Yankee 40 man roster to seven.  And because it happened on the same day the defending champion Chicago Cubs made a trade of their own, acquiring a frontline pitcher, the Yankees/Brewers move flew under the radar.  Nonetheless, it’s an interesting move for both teams.

Before we get to Webb and Cooper, we can assume that Cashman believed 142 major league plate appearances between the LA Angels and the Yankees from Ji-man Choi were enough to establish that he wasn’t the answer the Yankees sought at first base.  John Sterling somewhere is disappointed as his “Ji-man is he-man” call was going to be a keeper.

On the surface, this may seem to be a low level, under the radar trade – a minor leaguer for a guy with 6 innings pitched in the major leagues.  But what makes this an interesting gamble for both teams, is how both players went from good/slightly above minor leaguers to having stand out, look at me 2017 seasons.

Cooper was a slightly better than average minor leaguer before this season, when in 2017, he appears to have turned a corner and then some.  With a .428 on base percentage and a .652 slugging percentage in 320 AAA plate appearances, he’s a guy ready for the show.  Eric Thames having the season he’s having in Milwaukee is going to keep Cooper from playing first in Brew town for the time being however, hence their desire to roll the dice and let Cooper go.

Webb always missed bats as a minor leaguer – 9.5 strikeouts per nine innings was his lowest season average – but this season he found his groove.  He posted 12.7 K per 9 in AAA with a 15 to 1 K to BB ratio. 

Bottom line?  I like this move for the Yankees.  Losing Webb is a dice roll as well, as numbers like his are hard to ignore.  He has promise, but was a 48^th round pick and is about to be 27 years old.  That doesn’t read like someone who’s going to go on to really big things.

Cooper’s situation is similar in that he’s 26 and hasn’t hit the big time yet.  But he was a 6^th round amateur draft pick so he was seen as having some promise, but more importantly, .428/.652 is impressive.  That’s someone who deserves a shot.  You know the expression “replacement player”?  As in, your high salaried major leaguer is only better than “X” wins over an AAA player?  Well with his performance thus far, Cooper appears to be better than a replacement player, as he’s killing AAA.  Nobody needs reminding the Yankees have received sub-replacement level production from their first basemen this year.

In addition to being able to play first he can also play the outfield, meaning he can spell Brett Gardner and/or Aaron Judge occasionally.  And again, if we’re being frank, any outfielder that keeps Jacoby Ellsbury on the bench makes the Yankees a better team by doing so.  A harsh reality, but a reality nonetheless.

And despite the clamoring among the unwashed masses for pitching, the Yankees are hurting offensively without Hicks, Holliday and Castro.  The Yanks led the league in runs scored not that long ago but are a mile behind Houston in that department now.  A big part of that is injuries to the aforementioned – a huge part is getting absolutely no production from 1^st base.  Adding a guy with a .428/.692 slash line (albeit in triple A) should help.

Good move for both teams.  Some risk on both ends, but high upsides as well on both ends.

Thanks again to Baseball Reference and Fangraphs for the stats.

All Star Game thoughts:

I really wanted to avoid the tired tradition of 2^nd half predictions and 1^st half recaps, so this may seem a little random, but I think it’s better for all if we stay off the beaten path and think about things as they arise.  Let the tabloids do the 1^st half MVPs, Cy Youngs and Rookies of the Year…yawn…

Watching the FOX broadcast of the actual game reminded me of why I started this blog in the first place:  Listening to the same questions posed to the same players then the same talking heads discussing the same topics can be mind-numbing.  You can parade A-Rod around the field all you want and you can have Joe Buck talk to Bryce Harper during actual play all you want – it won’t change the tedium.

So for the sake of keeping it random, these two things occurred to me Tuesday night during the game:

Billy Beane is going to fleece another GM at the trade deadline with Yonder Alonso…

…and Brian Cashman recently said he’s looking to upgrade first base for the Yankees.  Put a pin in that, I’ll come back to it.

Other than having a great slugging percentage this season and being a free agent at the end of it, here’s what you need to know about Yonder Alonso:

His 2017 slugging percentage is .562.  His previous single season high is .397.

His ’17 OPS+ is 151.  His previous single season high is 110.

He’s on pace for 2.7 wins above replacement.  His previous single season high was 1.8.

Additionally, there is pretty solid reasoning that suggests that the baseballs this year are different than in the past, resulting in an increase in power numbers for batters.

Currently, Alonso is in a 1 year, $4 million contract, making him a free agent at the end of the season.

Needless to say, Billy Beane will be looking to move him.

So, question for you, if you were another GM:

How much would you be willing to give up for a player a) who may only be with you for 2 months, b) who will command $16 million per season at the end of the season, c) whose power over the past three months is an aberration, in a season full of aberrations, and d) who at his best, isn’t even a 3 win player?

Is it possible, like Daniel Murphy and Ryan Zimmerman, he changed his swing and 2017 is the real thing?  Possible, but unlikely, I say.

I’ll say this:  I would tread lightly if I were a GM.  I wouldn’t give up anything I liked.  Call me a skeptic, but I get the vibe in two years, the A’s will be winning 90 something games with prospects Beane gets for Alonso in two weeks.

Back to Cashman:

What got me thinking about this, was as I was watching the game Tuesday night, I wondered aloud what team is going to get suckered and over pay for Yonder Alonso?

The last time I had that thought?  During the 2013 world series, when I was watching Jacoby Ellsbury.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have 61 wins.  The Houston Astros have 60.  The next best team has seven fewer.

Both the Dodgers and Astros are run by General Managers who did not have experience in baseball prior to being hired as GM’s.  This is not a coincidence.

Andrew Friedman of the Dodgers was an extremely successful Wall Street analyst who took his analytical skills to the Tampa Bay Rays, leading them to a World Series appearance in ’08 before moving on to the Dodgers.  (Say that again for effect:  a World Series appearance from the Rays.)

Jeff Luhnow of the Astros is so smart I don’t even understand the job titles of his previous jobs.  He earned two degrees from the University of Pennsylvania in economics and engineering, before moving on to get an MBA.  Only then did he move on to the St. Louis Cardinals where he not only helped turn them into a perennial contender and multiple World Series winner, but was so effective the Cardinals thought it was worth cyber- hacking the Astros player data base once Luhnow went to Houston.

Why am I sharing this?

Just as a reminder that every time you hear an ex-jock speak into a microphone about how statistics are ruining the game, and sabermetrics this and the statisticians never played that…and every time you hear Paul O’Neill, John Flaherty and Al Leiter saying things like they’re “old school”, and you need to “make something happen, put pressure on the defense” and how the “Win” statistic is important, remember:

They have already lost the argument, and are either hugely ignorant, or just plain bitter that they know little about the game they played for decades.

Insert Brad Pitt voice from Moneyball: You think you know, but you don’t. YOU. DON’T.

There are people who are exponentially smarter, who have done exponentially more work on subject matters relevant to winning baseball games than they have.  The war is over.  The nerds won.

Parenthetically, the Philadelphia Phillies at 29 wins, were the last team to hire analytical statisticians.

Frazier was a side effect, credit Girardi.

I’ve been as critical of Joe Girardi as anyone.  But yesterday (drumroll), he had a great – not good – great game and he’s the reason the Yankees won.

Don’t get me wrong – I jumped off the couch and wind milled my arm like Pete Townsend when Clint Frazier* hit the ball over the wall in the 9th, followed by many fist pumps and “F yeah!”s.

*Or as Simpleton Summer Camp (Yes network) member Paul O’Neill says “Fray-zer”.  Deep breath…

Because this game is about fun, and that was fun to watch.

That being said, Clint Frazier’s home run was residual side effect.  The Yankees won that game because Joe Girardi put them in a position to win that game.

Joe’s great move #1 – putting Dellin Betances in when down by a run in the 8^th inning.

Joe’s modus operandi this season has been to use the Yankee’s 10^th or 11^th pitcher in spots like this, saving Betances and Chapman for potential mop-up duty later on.  Joe used one of his best guns and it worked – scoreless 8^th.

Joe’s great move #2 – putting Aroldis Chapman in to pitch the 9^th inning, still trailing by a run.

See above.  This is where Joe normally trusts a one run, late game deficit to the Jonathan Holders, Tyler Clippards and Domingo Germans of the world.  He went to his “closer” (I use that term sarcastically, as it’s a nonsensical term) and it worked – scoreless 9^th.

Joe’s great move #3 – not having Chase Headley bunt in the 9^th inning.

Didi Gregorius led off the 9^th with a 4 pitch walk and up came Chase Headley.  Immediately Simpleton Summer Camp queried as to whether or not Headley should bunt.  As discussed here previously, that notion is so nonsensical it’s not even worth further examination.

Headley did not bunt.  Headley struck out.

You may think that means he should have bunted.  I would disagree.

First, you don’t use the result to justify the means (unless you have a disinclination to logic).

Secondly, a strikeout there isn’t that bad when compared to a sacrifice bunt.  Yes, seriously.

A runner on 2^nd and 1 out has a run expectancy of .72.  A runner on first with one out has a run expectancy of .57.  Whether or not that’s a big enough difference to justify the risk of bunting is debatable.  For starters, that doesn’t factor in the close to 50/50 chance that the bunt wouldn’t be successful.  It also doesn’t consider that a strikeout there isn’t THAT harmful – at least there’s no double play.

But this is conjecture based on the benefit of hindsight.  What we know is that a runner on first with no one out has a run expectancy of .95.  A runner on 2^nd and one out has a run expectancy of .72 and a runner on 1^st with one out has a run expectancy of .57 (the latter two being bunt attempt outcomes).  Therefore, a bunt in this situation would have been ridiculous – and Joe made the right choice.

As you probably know, Jacoby Ellsbury walked and Clint Frazier homered and the Yankees won.  

Yes, the players won the game, but Joe Girardi gave them the opportunity to do so and deserves a ton of credit for the win.

Postscript:  On another note, I found another reason to love Clint Frazier in addition to yesterday’s performance and the overall sense of hope he brings:  When Simpleton Summer Camp’s Chris Shearn asked Frazier after the HR if Clint’s hair was OK, Clint looked at him with a look of “WTF kind of question is that, bro?”  A similar look followed when Shearn asked Clint “How did it feel…” blah, blah, blah… Maybe this is an upside to the younger generation.  They seem less tolerant of dumb ass questions.

Milwaukee who?

So the Yankees are playing the Brewers this weekend.  I’m assuming you know next to nothing about the Brewers because nobody outside the families of the team members does.  So I did some checking and here’s what you need to know, in no particular order:

The Brewers are an average team.  They’re 4^th in the NL in run differential, they’re 5^th in the NL in simple rating system (strength of schedule plus run differential), 5^th in the NL in runs scored, 11^th in on base percentage, 4^th in ERA+, 8^th in fielding independent pitching, 10^th in strikeout to walk ratio, and 11^th in team defensive efficiency.

Like I said, average.

According to Fangraphs projections, they have a 12% chance to win their division, an 8% chance of getting a wild card, and .04% chance of winning the world series.

So why are they in first place in the NL Central?

Two reasons:

1. They play in a shitty division.  They’re the only team over .500.

2. They have power.  They’re 2^nd in the NL in slugging percentage.

When you play against bad teams who tend to throw the ball down the middle, power comes in handy.  We’ll come back to that.

A few more specifics:

• Keep your eyes on Eric Sogard, he’s a very underrated player.  He’s been battling an ankle issue and is day to day, but anyone that can play all infield positions and has a .438 on base percentage can play on my team any day – hope I get to see him this weekend.

• The Brewers best two pitchers, Chase Anderson and Jimmy Nelson, aren’t scheduled to pitch this weekend.

• The Brewers can hit fastballs.  Sogard, Eric Thames, Keon Broxton and Travis Shaw are all above average fastball hitters.  On the whole, they’re OK against sliders, but they have nobody who’ll scare you against changeups or splitters.

Add this up and what does it mean?

The Yankees should win two out of three this weekend.  Even with Hicks, Holliday and Castro out – whose collective absence is killing the team even more than commonly discussed – the Yankees are still a better team.  Factor in, as noted, two of three of Milwaukee’s Best (like what I did there?) aren’t pitching.

If Severino, Tanaka and Montgomery can a) command the changeups and splitters and b) avoid conceding to batters with mediocre fastballs down the middle when behind in the count, the Yankees will be just fine this weekend.

That’s assuming Girardi doesn’t bunt or mismanage a bullpen the Yanks to more losses…

As usual, thanks to Fangraphs and baseball reference for the statistics and information.

Scraper, meet barrel bottom

I’ve mentioned it before, so for brevity’s sake, I’ll avoid a long introductory, obsequious ode to Joe Girardi.  Joe has some strengths as a manager.  Keeping a few dozen egos on the same page for six months without drama isn’t easy.  Avoiding on camera melt downs while answering some of the dumbest questions human beings have ever uttered takes some skill.  Having what has essentially been a crappy franchise for a long time and keeping them in contention in September every year takes some skill.

Now that I’m finished with the preamble that may limit some of the “But what about…” responses I’ll receive, let’s get to the bottom line:

Joe Girardi is an awful in game strategical manager.  Awful.  He constantly misuses his bullpen, leaving his best pitchers watching as the team’s 9^th, 10^th and 11^th best pitchers pitch in crucial situations.  His players continue to attempt bunts and stolen bases in situations where the risk/reward situation is so heavy leaning risk side that it’s nonsensical to even discuss.

Also I’ve written before, this has gone on all season with the Yankees and very may well cost them the division as many games this season, that have been close late, have been lost.

Despite a half season of Joe’s insistence on ignoring logic, facts and data in favor of toeing the line and doing what all the other ex-jocks would do, because you know, that’s what we’ve always done…the 7^th inning in yesterday’s game was managed more poorly than any rational fan watching could think possible.

At least we hope.  We collectively hope that the scraper has indeed met the bottom of the barrel.  Joe has had a rough season.  Hopefully this was rock bottom.

In case you missed it:

After trailing 5-0, the Yankees came back to take a 6-5 lead heading into the top of the 6^th, with help in part from another Aaron Judge home run.  More on this later…

Let’s add more context:  Dellin Betances and Aroldis Chapman had not pitched the previous day.  The following day was a day off for the team.

As has been previously discussed here: 

• The 6^th inning is as important as the ninth. 
• Games in July count just as much as games in September.
• Your best players need to be used in the most crucial situations to maximize their value.
• Asking your best relievers to get six outs when sandwiched around off days is not asking too much of them (to think starters get criticized for being "coddled")

Therefore, Dellin Betances should have started the 6^th inning.  Expecting 12 outs from he and Chapman combined would not only be reasonable, but would create the highest percentage chance of your team winning the game – by FAR.

Should the game situation change past the top of the 6th – should the Yankees add significantly to their lead, or should Betances pitch poorly, you can change course with regards to who’s pitching then.  What you don’t do is play “let’s wait and see if a REALLY important situation comes up later in which I might need my best players - I'll save them until then”.

Instead Girardi went to Chad Green, the Yankees’ 10^th best pitcher (literally).  Chad Green pitched a scoreless 6^th, then gave up a home run to Russel Martin – who was batting 2^nd in the lineup – to tie the game in the 7^th.  Why is his spot in the order significant?  Because you may – MAY – have been able to justify Green pitching the 6^th with batters 8, 9 and 1 coming up so Betances could pitch to batters 2,3 and 4 – but Luddite Joe blew that opportunity too.

But hold on, because Joe play it like it’s 1991 Girardi, as we would soon find out, was just getting warmed up.

So here we go.  Tie game, bottom of the 7^th.  Tyler Wade, a promising rookie with a .390 on base percentage in AAA leading off, then top of the order – Brett Gardner, then Aaron Judge (the best player in baseball) then Gary Sanchez (the best hitting catcher in baseball) coming up next.  This is as good a chance the Yankees could have to have a multi-run inning that would all but put the game away.

You literally couldn’t ask for a better environment in which to score multiple runs.  Because Toronto manager John Gibbons, not to be undone by Girardi, didn’t put his best pitcher in either.

Tyler Wade walked to leadoff.  Great start.  At this point (runner on first, nobody out) the Yankees have an average run expectancy of .953 runs per inning.

That’s an average.  With a good baserunner (Wade), a batter with 15 HR by the break (Gardner), the best hitter in baseball (Judge), and a guy with a career .584 slugging percentage coming up (Sanchez), that average goes MUCH higher.  This inning should have worn a sign:  This is going to be a big inning.

Of course, the members of simpleton summer camp (the Yes network) immediately began discussing the merits of bunting in this position.

Eye roll.

They didn’t get into detail, so they did not mention, that a sacrifice bunt attempt is “successful” only about half the time.  Just over 50% actually.

They also did not mention that if Gardner bunted “successfully” and Wade moved to 2nd, their average run expectancy would drop to .725.  That’s a pretty significant drop from .95.

Of course, it wasn’t mentioned the other approximate half of the time, the bunt attempt is not successful and an out is just given away.  This would drop the run expectancy to .573.  For the mathematically challenged, that’s a huge drop in run expectancy.

They also did not mention what was on the mind of quite likely, every reasonable person watching who can think more than one consecutive thought:  If Gardner bunts “successfully” and Wade moves to second base, Toronto would counter by intentionally walking Aaron Judge.  In other words, the best player in baseball, who happens to be on your team, and who happens to be coming up in a crucial situation, would lose a chance to swing the bat – because of YOUR CHOICE.

Rubs temples…

Spoiler alert:  Gardner bunted “successfully”, Judge was walked intentionally, Sanchez and Didi Gregorius popped out.  Betances took the mound in the 8^th and proceeded to embarrass himself.  The Yankees lost.

I understand, as I’ve written publicly before, that the team with the players who play the best will win 9 times out of ten regardless of strategical maneuvers by the managers.

I understand Betances hasn’t pitched well recently.

If either of those thoughts were the first things to pop into your head, you are missing the point.

First, managerial decisions may not factor into most games, but they do factor into some.  And in a 162 game season that is often decided by three games or fewer, winnable games can’t be managed into lose-able games if you expect to play in October.  Girardi has made a habit of that this year – anyone who doesn’t see that hasn’t been watching.

Secondly, Betances not pitching well is irrelevant with regards to this game.  Saying he shouldn’t have been used anyway because he hasn’t pitched well or that Girardi’s decision didn’t matter, is silly logic if we’re being frank.  That’s like saying I had 6 beers, got in the car to drive home but another car crashed into me, so it wasn’t my fault.

BS.  It was a stupid decision whether you go hit or not.  The same as not using your best players when the game is on the line is a stupid decision whether you ultimately win or lose the game.

Does the Yankee bullpen need to pitch better?  Of course.

But there was a time they were pitching pretty damn well, and Girardi still managed the same way:  use lesser players in an immediate and important situation because there might be an important situation later in which they can be used.

It’s nonsense.  It’s already cost the Yankees wins and will cost them more.

Judge and Sanchez in the HR Derby. Worried?

With the MLB Home Run Derby coming up, the usual questions about whether or not players should participate also arises.  The concern, held by many, is that the derby, through causing fatigue or a change of swing and/or batter philosophy would have a negative impact on the players’ game performance for the rest of the season.

Question:  Is this a legitimate concern?  For example, should the Yankees be concerned that their best two players, Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez are participating in the derby?  Their value to the Yankees over the second half of the season can’t be understated, so anything that may jeopardize their performance needs to be considered thoroughly.

Answer: I don’t know.  I don’t think anyone does.  There are too many variables to consider.

However, I did a little digging, and some interesting pieces of information arose.

I looked at the winners of the past 10 derbies.  (Here’s the first problem – small sample size.  One would really have to look at all participants going back to the 1980’s).

I compared their season performances prior to the all-star break and after winning the HR derby.

I used tOPS+ to measure their performance.  Why?

I’m not really interested in HR as a player evaluation tool.  It tells you that the ball was hit in the air, sometimes hard, then a whole bunch of randomness occurred.  Not much else.

I’m more concerned with how they played.  I.e., did their performance and value to their team decrease after participating in the derby.

I like OPS+ (on base percentage plus slugging percentage with adjustments for run scoring environments such as era and ballparks) because it encompasses offensive performance as a whole pretty well.  But again, my method isn’t comprehensive as other performance factors would have to be considered.

‘t” OPS+ compares a player’s individual partial season number to his total season number with 100 being average.  For example, Vladimir Guerrero’s 2^nd half tOPS+ in 2007 was 96.  With 100 being average, that means his 2^nd half was slightly below his own average performance that season.

Here’s what I found:

Among the last 10 winners of the HR derby the average was 104 tOPS+ in the first half season, 96 tOPS+ in the 2^nd half.

I.e., the players on average, generally performed a little better before winning the home run derby than they did after.  104/96 isn’t a huge difference over which we should panic, but it probably shouldn’t be ignored either.  Again, we’re dealing with a small sample of one measurement, so there’s no need to overreact, but if I were a player (or if I were writing a paycheck to players) I would definitely look into it further.

However, there is one exception that complicates things a bit.  But first the numbers:

The individual player’s performance with their 1^st half tOPS+ then their 2^nd half tOPS+.

2007 Vladimir Guerrero 103/96

2008 Justin Morneau 108/90

2009 Prince Fielder 109/90

2010 David Ortiz 110/90

2011 Robinson Cano 96/105

2012 Prince Fielder 88/114

2013 Yoenis Cespedes 95/108 (but hit fewer 2^nd half HR despite hitting better, strengthening my theory about HR not being a good performance measure)

2014 Yoenis Cespedes 98/103

2015 Todd Frazier 126/67

2016 Stanton 102/96

Again, nothing definitive, but worth keeping an eye on in totality.

However, Todd Frazier’s performance grabbed my attention and begs further questions.

It easily could be argued he was an outlier and the drastic difference in his 1^st and 2^nd half performances can be ignored as a fluke.  Remove his numbers and the other players’ numbers become more even, making this issue a non-issue.

However, his decline was so precipitous – he was Mike Schmidt until mid-July, then Enrique Wilson after – that it had to have affected his team’s performance, which ultimately is what we’re asking here.

Before the all-star break in 2015 the Reds (Frazier’s team) had a .453 winning percentage.  In the 2^nd half of ’15 the Reds’ winning percentage was .329.

Three. Twenty. Nine.

Now I’m not going to say the Reds’ drastic decline was Frazier’s fault, although it clearly was a big part of the picture.  And I’m not going to say Frazier’s decline was due to his participation in the HR derby.

But I certainly would understand the concern about your favorite players on your favorite team…

…although I wouldn’t worry too much.

My "reverse" all star ballot

I lost interest in the MLB all-star game a while ago.  Somewhere around the time it became the bro-fest, little league, everyone has to play nonsense I was out.  Then, you know, having to incentivize professional players to try to win – I was way out then.

But I loved it when I was a kid.  There was no inter-league play so seeing Jim Palmer against Joe Morgan was fun.  Seeing Roger Clemens against Tony Gwynn was fun.

I was actually at the ’77 game with my father.  I didn’t turn 7 years old until the next day (or later that night depending on which way you look at it) but I remember very clearly:

Dave Parker, Ellis Valentine, Dave Winfield and Reggie Smith having an impromptu pre-game throwing contest from deep right field to home plate.  Those gentleman, could throw – it was a sight to see.

Then Reggie Jackson, being Reggie Jackson went out and did the same – by himself when the AL took warm ups.

The game wasn’t much of a game.  That’s what happens when guys like Morgan, Bench, Garvey, Foster, Parker, Rose and Griffey play against guys like Zisk, Burleson, Wynegar, Fairly, Gross and Hisle.

I remember Dave Parker hit two line drive foul balls right by our seats and thinking that someone might die if they put their body in front of those balls they were hit so hard.

I remember how frigging HARD Goose Gossage, Tom Seaver, Dennis Eckersley and Jim Kern threw.  Years later this still makes me wonder about how many starters, if given the opportunity to throw one inning at max velocity against players who hadn’t seen them yet, how dominant could they have been?

That game (speaking of motivation and wanting to win) had Mike Schmidt who couldn’t play because of a thumb injury.  Schmidt showed up anyway in case Tommy Lasorda needed him to pinch run or stand in the on deck circle as a decoy.  I don’t see the Bryce Harpers of the world doing that.

But those days are gone.  And to me, so are the days of debating with your friends, who was more deserving of a vote – the guy having a career season or the guy who’s good every year.  Hanging chads are gone too.

So because of the above ramblings, I’m going in a different direction.  I’m going “reverse all-stars”.  These are the worst players at their position in each league.

Criteria: 175 plate appearances and 80% of your games played are at that position.

Caveats: I get you have to be good enough to be better than guys that can’t play regularly in order to be a regular player.  I get just by being in the major leagues means you’re a ridiculously good baseball player.  I’m just saying if you’re on this list, you may want to consider that your job security isn’t real solid.

Here are the worst players in baseball:

AL catcher: Jonathan Lucroy.  After all the trade deadline nonsense last year, a 0 (ZERO) WAR and .302 OBP this season.

NL catcher: Matt Wieters.  He’s the NL Lucroy. Zero WAR, .302 OBP.

AL 1B: Carlos Santana.  Used to be an impact offensive player.  Now is a weak link.

NL 1B: Adrian Gonzalez.  Can’t believe I’m writing this, as he was a bad dude back in the day.  He’s awful now. Awful.

AL 2B: Danny Espinosa.  Wow. Just wow.  Get the AAA 2B up now.

NL 2B: Jonathan Villar.  Another guy who used to be good but isn’t anymore.

AL 3B: Close – lots of choices here but I’m going with Nick Castellanos.

NL 3B: Maikel Franco.  Only 3B with a negative WAR and a .281/.376 OBP/SLG.  Is he even trying?

AL SS: Alcides Escobar.  To paraphrase Brock Lesnar: This guy had a rabbit’s foot stuck up his ass for a long time.  Luck runs out.

NL SS: Aldemys Diaz.  An all-star last year, the worst in baseball this year.

AL OF: Rajai Davis, Norichika Aoki, and Ezequiel Carrera.  Stiff competition from Alex Gordon, but…

NL OF: Carlos Gonzalez, Ian Desmond and Yasmany Tomas.  Still can’t believe people thought Desmond’s first 6 weeks last season were what he really was.  Tomas because I’ve seen him play twice and thought, “Wow, he might be the worst player I’ve ever seen.”  Turns out I’m close to being correct.  And Hunter Pence did his best to get his vote, but fell a little short.

Did I miss someone?  Tell me your vote…

Who should bat 2nd? (Easy answer)

I recently wrote about who should be leading off for the Yankees.  Due to all the injuries the Yankees have endured I had to write based on the assumption that all were healthy.  The result it was more of a “what if” piece and less a “Joe’s to do list” piece.

The topic of who should be batting second in the order thankfully does not fall under the umbrella of “what if” as both the player who should be batting second every day and the person who has been are both healthy.  This, therefore, is another Joe must do list.

Your best offensive player needs to be batting 2^nd.  Not should be, not you’d like it if… Your best offensive player needs to bat 2^nd in the order.

Therefore, Aaron Judge needs to bat 2^nd every time he’s in the lineup.

Therefore, Jacoby Ellsbury, somewhere between your 9^th and 11^th best offensive player, should never see any of the first five spots in the batting order.

Never.

My best probably won’t be good enough, but I’ll do my best to give you the short version of what Tom Tango, Mitchel Lichtman and Andrew Dolphin came up with*:

Each spot in the batting order is more or less likely to be in certain situations than other spots in the order.  The leadoff hitter is more likely to be up with no outs and no one on than any other spot.  The number 5 spot is most likely to come up with runners on base.

Each batting outcome has more or less value depending on the situation.  A walk is more valuable than a single with nobody on base.  A single is more valuable than a walk with runners on 2^nd and 3^rd.  A triple and a home run have similar values leading off an inning.  With runners on and 2 outs, a homerun is far more valuable.

These are just examples, but the point is, when you see what spots in the order are likely to see which situations, you can match up your player’s skillsets with those lineup spots.

And obviously, batters will bat more often the higher in the order they are.

When out and baserunner situations are factored in, combined with the frequencies of plate appearances of each spot in the order, the number two spot in the order will see the most at bats with the most baserunners on with the most outs, most often.

i.e., your best offensive player needs to bat second.

I’m hoping there is no dispute that Aaron Judge is the Yankees best batter.

Now on to beating a dead horse:

As I noted in my previous post about the leadoff spot, Ellsbury has two skills:  He’s fast and he makes contact.  Both of those skills can be utilized lower in the order as he can attempt stolen bases with less risk and is more likely to drive someone in with a single with two outs.

Order spots one through five however, more impactful skills are needed – particularly the abilities to get on base, hit, and hit with power.  Ellsbury has none of those skills.  He’s 7^th on the Yankees in OBP, 8^th in SLG, 8^th in OPS+.  That’s not factoring in new additions like Tyler Wade and Clint 

Frazier.

So give this some thought today when simpleton summer camp (the Yes network) attempts to explain Girardi’s lineup selections.

Thanks to baseball reference for the stats.

*They authored “The Book”.  In the discussion of the best baseball book I’ve read.