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Joey Bullpen and Chase Headley

Two quick hitters for you today:

Never change, Joey Bullpen:

I’ve covered this before, so I’m going to pass over the numbers that say it’s insane to use your best relief pitcher in a game where your team is either leading or trailing by 3 runs or more (that’s a game whose outcome will be the same with 99% of MLB pitchers, 99% of the time).  However, it is absolutely crucial to have him in games where you’re leading or trailing by 2 runs or less, as he gives you a significantly greater advantage than an average pitcher does in that case. 

So I’ll get right to some more information with the aforementioned as a back drop and frame of reference:

Yankees manager Joe Girardi recently said that the “extra wear and tear” of pitching for the Cubs in the World Series last season may be a reason Chapman is struggling this season.  “…sometimes it does catch up to you…”, Joey Bullpen explained.

In fairness, even with missing last April, Chapman did log a career high in innings last year when the regular season and post season were combined.

But whether or not he’s fatigued as a result is an irrelevant question.  The question is, if you believe that to be the case, how do you handle it ongoing?

I’ll tell you how I would NOT handle it, if I believed he were struggling as a residual side effect of over use:

I would not use him in meaningless games.  I know, I’m a crazy person, right?

In 42% of Chapman’s appearances THIS season, Chapman has been used in games where one team led the other by 3 runs or more. 

Essentially, in almost half of his appearances, Chapman - the $86 million dollar man - has been used in mop up duty.

This includes his first 3 appearances of the season in April where he was called on to “close out” games with 5-0, 7-3, and 8-4 leads.

This includes, when after being used against the first place Red Sox on July 14^th, and 15^th he was called on to protect a three run lead on the 16th.  They had another game against Boston later that night, for which he was unavailable.

Maybe it isn’t how Joe Maddon used him.  Just a thought.

I was wrong:

Chase Headley is, in fact, as bad as everyone has told me he is.  Among 19 Major League 3^rd baseman (or, 3^rd “basemens” as Paul O’Neill says) who have qualified for the batting title and have played 80% of their games at 3^rd base:

Headley is 11^th in OBP, 17^th in SLG, 18^th in OPS+, 18^th in WAR, and 18^th in dWAR.

I’m not going to try to do Brian Cashamn’s job for him, but I will say the prognosis is bad if you’re looking to upgrade.  Todd Frazier, Nick Castellanos and Yunel Escobar aren’t much better – definitely not worth giving up a breathing body for.

Thanks to NJ.com and Baseball Reference.

Some "in person" scouting today

I’m going to the Lakewood Blueclaws game this fine, sunny, July Sunday afternoon.  For those of you out of the loop, the ‘claws are the South Atlantic League’s A ball affiliate of the Philadelphia Phillies.  I’ve seen Cole Hamels, Ryan Howard, Carols Carrasco and Michael Bourn among others, go through the ranks.  And for what it’s worth, Carrasco was a sight to see at this level – other A ballers didn’t have a chance against him.  But more importantly than that, the ‘claws let you bring your dog to the game on Sundays, and my wife and I don’t go anywhere without our dogs.

Seriously.

Today, Lakewood are playing the Charelston River Dogs, the Yankees A ball affiliate.  So I figured I’d lose my keyboard expert tag for the day and give you some good ole’ scout sitting in the stands, with a brew, cigar and radar gun perspective.  Even if the reality will be sitting in the grass with my wife and dogs…and a brew and a pizza slice.

So here’s who’ll I’ll be watching, with some general thoughts first:

For pitchers, I (and the people at Baseball Prospectus and Fangraphs) like the ability to miss bats and throw good strikes – in other words, succeed in areas that are somewhat within their control.  So I look at strikeouts per 9 innings, strikeout to walk ratio and independent fielding pitching.

For batters, I tend to agree with the Billy Beane Money ball philosophy that batters either stay in the strike zone or they don’t from the very first time they step in the box as children.  Guys who didn’t when they were kids, never will, even as adults.  So as with the big leaguers, I like on base percentage as a measuring stick.  And generally, because power numbers are much lower in the minors than in the majors, a player with power in the minors is indicative of a power hitter – that may be obvious and/or repetitive, but it’s very true in this case.  If you can hit home runs in A ball, you have power. So again, not unlike how I evaluate the big leagues, slugging percentage, on base plus slugging and weighted runs created plus* are what I look at.

And one more thing of note, thanks to the Baseball Prospectus group:  Player’s age relative to the average age of players in the league is a huge indicator of future performance.  I.e., if the average age of the South Atlantic League players is 21.5, and a 19 year old is dominating the league, that’s an enormous boost to his value as it indicates he’s very likely to see the show at some point.  (As opposed to a player who is 23 and doing well at the same level…)

With that in mind:

Brandon Wagner

Wagner is an infielder from New Jersey’s own Immaculata high school who was a 6^th round pick of the Yankees.  He’s 21 which is -.5 years under average for the SAL.  Brandon leads the South Atlantic League in OBP, and he’s 11^th in weighted runs created plus (wRC+).  In other words, he’s one of the better players in the SAL.

Estevan Florial

Florial is a 19 year old (very young for the level) outfielder with power, direct from Haiti.  He’s 7^th in the SAL in slugging percentage and wRC+, 6^th in OPS, and 10^th in OBP.  This is the kid to watch on this team.

Other players of note:

Although I’ll have my eyes on Wagner and Florial, there are some other interesting players here…

Hoy Jun Park is a middle infielder who’s 6^th in the SAL in OBP.  We are now all conditioned to see a player who can play multiple positions with a high OBP and think of Ben Zobrist and Marwin Gonzalez.

Brian Keller is the River Dog’s best pitcher, as he’s top ten in the SAL in K per 9, K/BB ratio and K%.  But he is 23 (old for the level) and was a 39^th round draft pick.  In other words, it’s very unlikely we’ll ever see him in the Bronx.

Thanks as usual to Baseball Reference and Fangraphs for the numbers.

*Weighted runs created plus is another stat I like.  It takes into account every offensive event, weights them, and factors in the league and park contexts in which they took place.

Michael Pineda - what you're missing:

With Michael Pineda being diagnosed with an ulnar collateral tear in his elbow, his immediate future is up in the air*.  None of us know what the length of his absence will be, but for the sake of discussion, let’s assume the worst:  If he’s gone for an extended period, what exactly do you the Yankees need to replace?

Almost all references from Simpleton Summer Camp (the Yes Network), mass media and fans refer to his inconsistency.  Lots of strikeouts, but lots of home runs and runs allowed.  Of course, because of the nature of Simpleton Summer Camp and the fans, the very significant and relevant issues of his body language and how he wears his hat arise.

(Pinches bridge of nose…)

If you are indeed among the camp of not liking his body language, how her wears his hat, or his inconsistency, here’s what you need to know:

Three and a half seasons, in my mind anyway, is a good enough sample size to judge what a player is going to give you, inconsistencies aside.  In Pineda’s case, here’s what he’s given you – in other words, here’s what you need to replace:

Among American League starting pitchers between 2014 and 2017, with 500 innings pitched over that span, Pineda is:

• 9^th in Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) among 27 who fit the criteria.
• 5^th in strikeout percentage (only behind Chris Sale, Corey Kluber, Chris Archer, and David Price – ever hear of those guys?).
• 2^nd in strikeout to walk ratio, behind Chris Sale only.

On an open market, his performance over those 3 and a half seasons would be worth $78 million.

The Yankees have paid him $14 million over that time.

And it should go without saying, if you’re one of 27 pitchers who are good enough to be run out there every 5th day for 3.5 years, that alone makes you one of the best in the league.

So great, you don’t like Pineda.  Replace him.

Find an available pitcher who’s going to be among the best in the league in categories over which he has control:  Missing bats and not putting anyone on base himself.  And oh, by the way, that pitcher needs to play for $64 million under market value.

In other words, get Tampa to trade Archer or Cleveland to trade Kluber to the Yankees for the equivalent of Jesus Montero.  Remember him?  The guy for whom the Yankees acquired Pineda, who isn’t in baseball anymore.

I get it.  As a fan, Pineda can be frustrating.  But as fans we tend to believe our eyes, which are poor judges of performance – follow the numbers, and Pineda is a very tough player to replace.

Thanks to Fangraphs and Baseball Reference for the stats.

*UCL issues do not have a standard treatment.  Short term rehabilitation may work, sometimes Tommy John surgery and a long recovery is required.

Tyler Wade for Garrett Cooper

Yankee General Manager Brian Cashman has traded left handed relief pitcher Tyler Webb to the Milwaukee Brewers for first baseman Garrett Cooper.  In doing so, Cashman has reduced the number of “Tylers” on the Yankee 40 man roster to seven.  And because it happened on the same day the defending champion Chicago Cubs made a trade of their own, acquiring a frontline pitcher, the Yankees/Brewers move flew under the radar.  Nonetheless, it’s an interesting move for both teams.

Before we get to Webb and Cooper, we can assume that Cashman believed 142 major league plate appearances between the LA Angels and the Yankees from Ji-man Choi were enough to establish that he wasn’t the answer the Yankees sought at first base.  John Sterling somewhere is disappointed as his “Ji-man is he-man” call was going to be a keeper.

On the surface, this may seem to be a low level, under the radar trade – a minor leaguer for a guy with 6 innings pitched in the major leagues.  But what makes this an interesting gamble for both teams, is how both players went from good/slightly above minor leaguers to having stand out, look at me 2017 seasons.

Cooper was a slightly better than average minor leaguer before this season, when in 2017, he appears to have turned a corner and then some.  With a .428 on base percentage and a .652 slugging percentage in 320 AAA plate appearances, he’s a guy ready for the show.  Eric Thames having the season he’s having in Milwaukee is going to keep Cooper from playing first in Brew town for the time being however, hence their desire to roll the dice and let Cooper go.

Webb always missed bats as a minor leaguer – 9.5 strikeouts per nine innings was his lowest season average – but this season he found his groove.  He posted 12.7 K per 9 in AAA with a 15 to 1 K to BB ratio. 

Bottom line?  I like this move for the Yankees.  Losing Webb is a dice roll as well, as numbers like his are hard to ignore.  He has promise, but was a 48^th round pick and is about to be 27 years old.  That doesn’t read like someone who’s going to go on to really big things.

Cooper’s situation is similar in that he’s 26 and hasn’t hit the big time yet.  But he was a 6^th round amateur draft pick so he was seen as having some promise, but more importantly, .428/.652 is impressive.  That’s someone who deserves a shot.  You know the expression “replacement player”?  As in, your high salaried major leaguer is only better than “X” wins over an AAA player?  Well with his performance thus far, Cooper appears to be better than a replacement player, as he’s killing AAA.  Nobody needs reminding the Yankees have received sub-replacement level production from their first basemen this year.

In addition to being able to play first he can also play the outfield, meaning he can spell Brett Gardner and/or Aaron Judge occasionally.  And again, if we’re being frank, any outfielder that keeps Jacoby Ellsbury on the bench makes the Yankees a better team by doing so.  A harsh reality, but a reality nonetheless.

And despite the clamoring among the unwashed masses for pitching, the Yankees are hurting offensively without Hicks, Holliday and Castro.  The Yanks led the league in runs scored not that long ago but are a mile behind Houston in that department now.  A big part of that is injuries to the aforementioned – a huge part is getting absolutely no production from 1^st base.  Adding a guy with a .428/.692 slash line (albeit in triple A) should help.

Good move for both teams.  Some risk on both ends, but high upsides as well on both ends.

Thanks again to Baseball Reference and Fangraphs for the stats.

All Star Game thoughts:

I really wanted to avoid the tired tradition of 2^nd half predictions and 1^st half recaps, so this may seem a little random, but I think it’s better for all if we stay off the beaten path and think about things as they arise.  Let the tabloids do the 1^st half MVPs, Cy Youngs and Rookies of the Year…yawn…

Watching the FOX broadcast of the actual game reminded me of why I started this blog in the first place:  Listening to the same questions posed to the same players then the same talking heads discussing the same topics can be mind-numbing.  You can parade A-Rod around the field all you want and you can have Joe Buck talk to Bryce Harper during actual play all you want – it won’t change the tedium.

So for the sake of keeping it random, these two things occurred to me Tuesday night during the game:

Billy Beane is going to fleece another GM at the trade deadline with Yonder Alonso…

…and Brian Cashman recently said he’s looking to upgrade first base for the Yankees.  Put a pin in that, I’ll come back to it.

Other than having a great slugging percentage this season and being a free agent at the end of it, here’s what you need to know about Yonder Alonso:

His 2017 slugging percentage is .562.  His previous single season high is .397.

His ’17 OPS+ is 151.  His previous single season high is 110.

He’s on pace for 2.7 wins above replacement.  His previous single season high was 1.8.

Additionally, there is pretty solid reasoning that suggests that the baseballs this year are different than in the past, resulting in an increase in power numbers for batters.

Currently, Alonso is in a 1 year, $4 million contract, making him a free agent at the end of the season.

Needless to say, Billy Beane will be looking to move him.

So, question for you, if you were another GM:

How much would you be willing to give up for a player a) who may only be with you for 2 months, b) who will command $16 million per season at the end of the season, c) whose power over the past three months is an aberration, in a season full of aberrations, and d) who at his best, isn’t even a 3 win player?

Is it possible, like Daniel Murphy and Ryan Zimmerman, he changed his swing and 2017 is the real thing?  Possible, but unlikely, I say.

I’ll say this:  I would tread lightly if I were a GM.  I wouldn’t give up anything I liked.  Call me a skeptic, but I get the vibe in two years, the A’s will be winning 90 something games with prospects Beane gets for Alonso in two weeks.

Back to Cashman:

What got me thinking about this, was as I was watching the game Tuesday night, I wondered aloud what team is going to get suckered and over pay for Yonder Alonso?

The last time I had that thought?  During the 2013 world series, when I was watching Jacoby Ellsbury.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have 61 wins.  The Houston Astros have 60.  The next best team has seven fewer.

Both the Dodgers and Astros are run by General Managers who did not have experience in baseball prior to being hired as GM’s.  This is not a coincidence.

Andrew Friedman of the Dodgers was an extremely successful Wall Street analyst who took his analytical skills to the Tampa Bay Rays, leading them to a World Series appearance in ’08 before moving on to the Dodgers.  (Say that again for effect:  a World Series appearance from the Rays.)

Jeff Luhnow of the Astros is so smart I don’t even understand the job titles of his previous jobs.  He earned two degrees from the University of Pennsylvania in economics and engineering, before moving on to get an MBA.  Only then did he move on to the St. Louis Cardinals where he not only helped turn them into a perennial contender and multiple World Series winner, but was so effective the Cardinals thought it was worth cyber- hacking the Astros player data base once Luhnow went to Houston.

Why am I sharing this?

Just as a reminder that every time you hear an ex-jock speak into a microphone about how statistics are ruining the game, and sabermetrics this and the statisticians never played that…and every time you hear Paul O’Neill, John Flaherty and Al Leiter saying things like they’re “old school”, and you need to “make something happen, put pressure on the defense” and how the “Win” statistic is important, remember:

They have already lost the argument, and are either hugely ignorant, or just plain bitter that they know little about the game they played for decades.

Insert Brad Pitt voice from Moneyball: You think you know, but you don’t. YOU. DON’T.

There are people who are exponentially smarter, who have done exponentially more work on subject matters relevant to winning baseball games than they have.  The war is over.  The nerds won.

Parenthetically, the Philadelphia Phillies at 29 wins, were the last team to hire analytical statisticians.

Frazier was a side effect, credit Girardi.

I’ve been as critical of Joe Girardi as anyone.  But yesterday (drumroll), he had a great – not good – great game and he’s the reason the Yankees won.

Don’t get me wrong – I jumped off the couch and wind milled my arm like Pete Townsend when Clint Frazier* hit the ball over the wall in the 9th, followed by many fist pumps and “F yeah!”s.

*Or as Simpleton Summer Camp (Yes network) member Paul O’Neill says “Fray-zer”.  Deep breath…

Because this game is about fun, and that was fun to watch.

That being said, Clint Frazier’s home run was residual side effect.  The Yankees won that game because Joe Girardi put them in a position to win that game.

Joe’s great move #1 – putting Dellin Betances in when down by a run in the 8^th inning.

Joe’s modus operandi this season has been to use the Yankee’s 10^th or 11^th pitcher in spots like this, saving Betances and Chapman for potential mop-up duty later on.  Joe used one of his best guns and it worked – scoreless 8^th.

Joe’s great move #2 – putting Aroldis Chapman in to pitch the 9^th inning, still trailing by a run.

See above.  This is where Joe normally trusts a one run, late game deficit to the Jonathan Holders, Tyler Clippards and Domingo Germans of the world.  He went to his “closer” (I use that term sarcastically, as it’s a nonsensical term) and it worked – scoreless 9^th.

Joe’s great move #3 – not having Chase Headley bunt in the 9^th inning.

Didi Gregorius led off the 9^th with a 4 pitch walk and up came Chase Headley.  Immediately Simpleton Summer Camp queried as to whether or not Headley should bunt.  As discussed here previously, that notion is so nonsensical it’s not even worth further examination.

Headley did not bunt.  Headley struck out.

You may think that means he should have bunted.  I would disagree.

First, you don’t use the result to justify the means (unless you have a disinclination to logic).

Secondly, a strikeout there isn’t that bad when compared to a sacrifice bunt.  Yes, seriously.

A runner on 2^nd and 1 out has a run expectancy of .72.  A runner on first with one out has a run expectancy of .57.  Whether or not that’s a big enough difference to justify the risk of bunting is debatable.  For starters, that doesn’t factor in the close to 50/50 chance that the bunt wouldn’t be successful.  It also doesn’t consider that a strikeout there isn’t THAT harmful – at least there’s no double play.

But this is conjecture based on the benefit of hindsight.  What we know is that a runner on first with no one out has a run expectancy of .95.  A runner on 2^nd and one out has a run expectancy of .72 and a runner on 1^st with one out has a run expectancy of .57 (the latter two being bunt attempt outcomes).  Therefore, a bunt in this situation would have been ridiculous – and Joe made the right choice.

As you probably know, Jacoby Ellsbury walked and Clint Frazier homered and the Yankees won.  

Yes, the players won the game, but Joe Girardi gave them the opportunity to do so and deserves a ton of credit for the win.

Postscript:  On another note, I found another reason to love Clint Frazier in addition to yesterday’s performance and the overall sense of hope he brings:  When Simpleton Summer Camp’s Chris Shearn asked Frazier after the HR if Clint’s hair was OK, Clint looked at him with a look of “WTF kind of question is that, bro?”  A similar look followed when Shearn asked Clint “How did it feel…” blah, blah, blah… Maybe this is an upside to the younger generation.  They seem less tolerant of dumb ass questions.