Who should lead off? Not who you think.

I started to write about the Yankees lineup in general, in terms of who should be batting where in the order.  Then a wave of injuries and physical issues occurred forcing the Yankees to have different players in the lineup pretty much every day, so I held off.

But I did notice something else: The Yankees don’t have a leadoff hitter.  At least not one that you would say, this guy is our best leadoff hitter, run him out there in the #1 spot every day.

The Yankees best leadoff hitters, obviously would be Aaron Judge, Matt Holliday and Gary Sanchez, in that order.  But their value in the #2 spot (Judge) and either 3 and 4 or 4 and 5 (Sanchez/Holliday) is too great to have them lead off.  More on this later, but Aaron Judge needs to bat second every game.  Not doing this isn’t far behind only using your closer with a lead in the 9^th inning logic, which isn’t very solid logic.

But injuries, you say.  OK, understood.  Let’s assume everyone is healthy.  Who is your best leadoff hitter?  The answer is still the same – you don’t have one who stands out on your roster.

Let’s start by defining what skills a good leadoff hitter needs.  For 100 years, being the fastest guy on the team made you the leadoff hitter – this is rather misguided.

A leadoff hitter gets a lot of at bats with no one on base, due to leading off the game and batting after the worst hitters.  With no one on base a walk is more valuable than a single, due to forcing the pitcher to throw more pitches.  So we need a player who gets a lot of base on balls, and sees a lot of pitches.

A leadoff hitter needs to be a good baserunner.  Not a fast baserunner necessarily, and definitely not a base stealer.  An efficient baserunner.  One who won’t run into an out.  One who knows when to try for 3^rd vs. holding at 2^nd or trying to score vs. holding at 3^rd.  This is crucial as the 2^nd, 3^rd and 4^th batters presumably will have high slugging percentages and will being getting hits that provide the opportunity to advance multiple bases in one play.

You do not want a base stealer here.  With your best hitters coming up it is not worth the risk of running into an out.  Additionally, and quite obviously to most of us, even a successful steal affords the opposing pitcher the opportunity to pitch around your best hitter.  Frankly, I’m OK with water boarding for anyone who gets caught stealing when Judge is at the plate, as Aaron Hicks did in the Los Angeles series.

And it goes without saying, the primary job of a leadoff hitter is to get on base.  On base percentage is a significant factor when choosing.  But again, a player who’s high OBP that comes from many walks is a better leadoff option than a player who’s high OBP comes from many singles.  The singles hitter has more value later in the lineup with guys on base.  Think Wade Boggs, not Ichiro.

So let’s look at the Yankees options, again assuming all are healthy.

Aaron Hicks, Chase Headley, Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner.  Yes, Chase Headley. I’ll mention Tyler Wade later as an interesting option.

Hicks has by far the highest OBP.  He sees the second most pitches in the group and walks the most of the group.  Problem? He’s the worst baserunner by far.  Also, having the most power among those names makes him valuable elsewhere in the lineup.

It should also be noted that Hicks is the best overall offensive player of the group.  This is significant – the leadoff hitter will get more plate appearances than anyone else so being an impact offensive player is a big factor.

Headley, along with Gardner, are the best baserunners of the group.  But Headley’s OBP and walk percentage are better than both Gardner’s and Ellsbury’s.

Gardner sees the most pitches and is a good baserunner.  But his OBP, which has been plummeting, is the lowest of the group and he doesn’t get many walks – only 11% of his at bats.

Ellsbury has an average OBP, he’s an average baserunner, he’s average with regards to pitches seen and he’s average at getting bases on balls.  In other words, he’s the worst option of the four.

So what do I think?

I think Chase Headley should be leading off.  It’s a coin flip between he and Gardner, but a) Headley’s OBP and walk percentage are higher, b) Gardner’s power edge and base stealing edge make him more valuable than Headley is lower in the order. 

Obviously, pitching matchups would factor in, as would Headley’s switch hitting ability depending on the other 8 guys playing that day.  It’s a toss up, but put a gun to my head and it’s Chase.

It would not be Hicks for me.  His power and switch hitting ability would suit the team better somewhere between 3, 4, and 5.  Plus, as noted, he is not a good base runner.

Ellsbury should never lead off a game.  His only upsides are a) his base stealing ability, and b) he swings more and makes contact more than the others.  Both of those skills have much more of an impact lower in the lineup than they do at the top.  Frankly, putting him in front of players like Castro and Gregorius in the lineup would be the best way to maximize his skills.

I left Tyler Wade out because 70 games in AAA isn’t enough to go on for me yet, but…

He did have a .390 OBP (very good, but atypical for his career) and he’s average at seeing pitches, base running, and walk rate.  It’s also worth noting, he’s been young for each level at which he’s played in the minors – may indicate he’s more advanced than his stats suggest. Depending on how he performs over the next few weeks, he may be worth a look see.

Thanks to Fangraphs for the stats, and to Tom Tango, Mitchel Lichtman, and Andrew Dolphin, authors of "The Book" for the background information.

The real reason the Yankees lost yesterday

You’re correct: Michael Pineda allowing 3 HR in 4 innings created a big problem.  But the Yankees got past that with a great bullpen performance and offense.  They were in a position to win despite Pineda.

Chase Headley being thrown out attempting to steal with one out in the 6^th inning when trailing 7-4 didn’t help either.  (More on this later, because that wasn’t a bad play on Headley’s part in my mind…)

Of course, the masters of the obvious over at Simpleton Summer Camp (the YES network) obsessed on those two points both during and after the game.

But I’m here to tell you the real reason the Yankees lost yesterday was because of the best defensive play you saw all year, that to my knowledge, wasn’t mentioned or acknowledged on the live broadcast or on the post-game activities at Simpleton Summer Camp.

With the Yankees trailing 7-5 with two outs and runners on 1^st and 2^nd base (Gary Sanchez and Aaron Judge, respectively) and Didi Gregorius at the plate, the game was decided by a phenomenal multi-part defensive play.

Gregorius lined a single to right field, fielded by Texas right fielder Shin Soo Choo.  Judge rounded 3^rd and was on his way to scoring, Sanchez rounded 2^nd headed for 3rd.  Choo, knowing that a) Judge runs well and was going to score anyway, and far more importantly b) Sanchez was the tying run, and does not run well, threw to 3^rd.

Very unscientifically, I would guess that outfielders throw home 9 times out of 10 in that situation.  And almost invariably, the runner scores and the other two runners advance to 2^nd and 3^rd.

What would’ve happened then?

With runners on 2^nd and 3^rd with 2 outs, teams score an average of .634 runs.

That’s average.  The Yankees had a player coming to the plate who was in the middle of a 3 for 4 day (Headley) against a Texas pitcher (Alex Claudio) who doesn’t strike many batters out.  So there was a better than average chance there that the Yankees either tie or take the lead, if Choo had thrown home.

But that’s not what he did.  Choo threw a laser to Adrian Beltre at 3^rd, and Gary Sanchez was out.

And with that, the Yankees run expectancy went from .634 or better runs to ZERO.  Inning over.

And to make the play even more impressive, Choo’s throw was slightly off line and slightly short, forcing Beltre to make a back hand short hop play on a throw from right field before making a tag.  He did, and that’s one of many reasons Adrian Beltre is somewhere between #5 and #10 on the best third baseman of all-time list.  Yes, that’ll be another blog.

Now, I’m admittedly overstating the importance of a single play on a game’s outcome.  There are innumerable variables and dozens of plays that combine to factor in to who won and who lost – this game was no different.

But this was a great dammed play by Choo and Beltre.  Heads up, great decision making and awesome athletic skills made it a sight to see.  And although it wasn’t the only reason the Yankees lost, it was a vastly understated part of why they lost.

Sometimes the other team is just better.  As I’ve said before, the team that plays better is going to win 9 times out of 10, regardless of Xs and Os strategy.

Speaking of which…

Postscript:  Chase Headley is the best baserunner on the Yankees and one of the better ones in the league.  If he thinks he can get to 2^nd base with the bottom of the order up, where it’s a significantly lower risk, you have to let him go.  It’ll help more often than not.  This time it didn’t.  Like I said above, the other guys get big paychecks too.

Postscript part II:  Somewhat out of character, Joe Girardi had a great game and as a result, the Yankees still had a chance to win a game that they had virtually no chance to earlier.  When Austin Romine came to the plate in the 5th, the Yankees had a 1.9% chance of winning according to Fangraphs – in the bottom of the 8th, it was up to 48%.  This was due in part to Girardi using Dellin Betances in the 8th with the Yankees down a run – i.e., Joe used one of his best when the game was on the line.  This is something he hasn’t done in the past, typically leaving those situations to be handled by the Yankees’ 10th or 11th best pitchers, or a AA pitcher, depending on availability.  Joe made an even gutsier – and smarter – move by bringing in Chapman in to pitch the 9th, still down a run.  That gave the Yankees a real opportunity to win in the bottom of the 9th.

*Thanks to Baseball Reference, “The Book” by Tom Tango and Fangraphs for the #’s.

June 23rd update:

I like to add to my blog pretty consistently, but lately there’s been more of the same old.  Not too much I haven’t covered already and/or anything I thought required 1,000 of my words.  Basically, we’ve been watching the Yankees deteriorate in large part because of their manager’s complete inability to discern important situations from the unimportant, and to choose his pitcher(s) accordingly.

Like I said, nothing I haven’t covered before.

But I do like to contribute consistently, so here are some thoughts of less depth, in no particular order:

Al Leiter

I need to remind myself, as I implore you to, that Al Leiter could throw a baseball 95 miles per hour 30 something years ago.  It is this trait – and this trait only – that allows him to speak into a microphone, to an audience in 2017.  Knowledge - about anything – has nothing to do with his current position.  I don’t mean to pick on him, he’s hardly alone in that regard.  But I think I’d rather stick pencils in my eyeballs than listen to him defend the “win” stat by saying he’d like to see pitchers “gut out a win”.  Implication being, the pitcher who took the “loss” didn’t have enough guts.  This, in addition to numerous other departures from what would be considered logical thought.

Rizzo

Anthony Rizzo should have been suspended.  What he did is exactly what the rule is designed to prevent.

Gardner

Without much notice, Brett Gardner is slumping pretty badly.  On May 19^th his on base percentage was .381. Today it’s .340, which is below his career average.  Given his history of slow second halves and the fact the Aaron’s have never played a full major league season, I wouldn’t mind seeing Dustin Fowler get some time to give these guys a breath.

Torres

The slide on which Gleyber Torres injured himself was not a head first slide.  Everyone can stop talking about it. That is all.

All. Rise.

I think Aaron Judge is more fun to watch than any player in my lifetime.  I write “I think” because I’m not sure, I may be forgetting somebody.  Dwight Gooden in ’85 comes to mind as the only one close.  I’m thinking Guidry in ’78, Reggie, Winfield, Mattingly, Rickey and Jeter were all something to see – but this kid is a SHOW.

All Star game

Despite Judge, along with a handful of other players who have emerged as stars who I don’t get to see too often (Arenado, Blackmon, Bellinger, Jansen, among others) who I’d like to, I still can’t get into the game and the bro-fest it’s become.  Gone are the days when Ted Williams won an all-star game in the 9^th inning with a home run. Or when Mike Schmidt, who couldn’t throw or hit because of an injured thumb was available anyway in case Tommy Lasorda needed him to pinch run or stand in the on deck circle as a decoy.  Ever since players needed to be incentivized to you know, compete - I tuned out. (Yes, I’m aware, that’s no longer a “thing”.)

Girardi #3

Recently, Joe Sheehan, a writer I follow, listed who he felt were the best mangers in baseball, #1-#30.  This led the MLB network to do a similar list.  Sheehan had Joe Girardi at #4, the MLB network had him at #3, ahead of Joe Maddon.

What’s scarier:

A) The possibility that these “experts” don’t actually watch Joe Girardi manage, and have zero clue about which they speak.  Or…

B) They’re correct, and by definition, there are 20 something managers in baseball worse than Girardi.

I think it’s “B” which is disconcerting.

Two caveats: One, I don’t think this is possible to do.  In order to grade managers, you’d have to watch literally every game, every day.  Secondly, they were only factoring in game strategy, not the ability to manage humans and keep their shit together over 162 games.  This makes the list more ridiculous, as Girardi is great at the latter, amateurish at the former.

Thanks for reading and thanks as usual to baseball reference for the stats.

Remember these two games:

On June 13^th and 14^th, the NY Yankees, one of the best teams in baseball in one of the best divisions in baseball (i.e., they aren’t going to run away and hide from the rest of their division, like the Washington Nationals will – these games count) took on the red headed step children of the city of lights.  The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, owners of a 33-34 record at the time, were playing without Mike Trout, essentially making them a AA team.

Short version of events:

On June 13^th, the Yankees held a 2-1 lead entering the bottom of the 7^th.  They gave up one run in the 8^th and another in the 11^th in a 3-2 loss.

On June 14^th, the game was square at 5 runs each entering the 7^th, in an eventual 7-5 loss.

In those two games combined there were 7 innings where the game was tied and/or the Yankees had a 1 run lead in the 7^th inning or later.

Giovanny Gallegos, Adam Warren, Tyler Clippard, Jonathan Holder, Chasen Shreve, Dan Chaliss, Ben Heller and Ronald Herrera all pitched.  Seriously - only one of those names is fictional.

Dellin Betances did not.

After the game on the 14^th, Joe Girardi said “I can’t ask Dellin to give me nine outs.”  I’ll come back to that…

I’ve already discussed this when Girardi was misusing his previous “closer” (I’m disliking that term more every day) Aroldis Chapman, so I won’t rehash.  If you’re interested, you can scroll down to the blog where I discussed it.

But I will reiterate:  Games in June count just as much as games in September.  The 7^th inning counts just as much as the 9^th.

Leaving your best pitcher in the bullpen when you’re in the situations the Yankees were in is bat…shit…crazy.

Joe can’t get 9 outs from Dellin?  OK – how about 6?  How about 3?

We’ll never know if it would’ve made a difference in the won/loss record because bullets from our best gun are still sitting in the chamber, while a kid just up from AA (literally) was thrown into what was a crucial situation for this team.

If the Yankees lose the AL East by less than 2 games, remember these two games, and the games when Chapman wasn’t used in similar situations earlier this season.

And also remember this when your local Luddite sports writer, announcer, or talk show host tells you “Joe knows how to manage a bullpen”.  

Rubs temples…

Need pitching? Or got pitching?

More than a few people have mentioned their concerns to me about what, if anything, the Yankees should do regarding their starting pitching.  I.e., should they make a move at the trade deadline to bolster the rotation for a playoff run?

Obviously, we have to see how this plays out as there’s a long way to go with regards to both team and individuals’ performance that would dictate who’s available come July.  That being said, I’ll going to tackle this in two parts:

One – Are we trying to solve a problem that doesn’t exist?

First, let’s look at team performance:  As a team, the Yankees are 3^rd in MLB in ERA+, 5^th in strikeout to walk ratio and 6^th in fielding independent pitching.  If you want to look at the team’s performance as a whole with regards to run prevention, the Yankees are 2^nd in baseball – 1^st in the American League - in runs allowed per game.

But you’re concerned about the rotation, not the bullpen and defense?  OK, I’ll play along…

Out of 82 MLB pitchers who currently qualify for the ERA title, the Yankees have 4: Luis Severino, Michael Pineda, C.C. Sabathia and MashiroTanaka.  (I’ll get to Jordan Montgomery, who falls just short of qualifying, in a moment…)

• In ERA+, Severino, Pineda and Sabathia are all in the top third of MLB.  Actually Severino is in the top 10%, sitting at #7 overall.
• In fielding independent pitching the same three are all in the top half of MLB, with Severino leading the way again at 14^th overall.
• In strikeout to walk ratio, all 4 are above league average, with Severino coming in at 9th overall and Pineda 11^th overall.

So, when league run scoring environment and park factors are considered, they don’t allow many runs, they are successful at the factors they control, and they miss bats without putting runners on.

Here are some additional things to consider:

1. Jordan Montgomery is above league average in all the above statistics.
2. They pitch in the American League – the above ranks factor in pitchers who regularly face other pitchers.
3. You can certainly say Tanaka is a problem.  But we can also say Severino is the legitimate ace that Tanaka is not thus far this year.  It’s fair to be both half full and half empty: Tanaka may stink and Severino may return to earth, but Tanaka may improve and Severino may be this good, as well.

And before we discuss looking at other starting pitchers outside the pinstripe world, remember Chance Adams and Adam Warren.  Adams is dominating AAA after dominating AA, and Warren is still on your team.  And as I’ve previously pointed out, Adam Warren has succeeded in whichever role he’s been placed, including starting.

But let’s assume we’re still talking about the Steinbrenner’s and panic will set in.  The mindset of “let’s do something” even if doing nothing is the better option will always be around this crew.

Part II – there’s isn’t a good fit out there.

Of starting pitchers in MLB who a) have enough innings to qualify, b) play for teams we can reasonably assume will be out of contention in July, and c) are in the top half of pitchers in ERA+, there are none who are good fits, and only one I would consider if the cost involved a serious prospect.  Don’t even ask me – Dustin Fowler, Clint Frazier, Chance Adams, Jorge Mateo, both Tylers (Wade and Austin), aren’t going anywhere.

There’s Jason Vargas, age 34, 12 year vet.  Has pitched well for 2 months of that 12 years.

Jamie Garcia will be a free agent at the end of this season.  We ain’t renting for a prospect.

Danny Duffy currently has elbow problems.

I like Edinson Volquez but would have too high an asking price given his resume and contract.

Derek Holland is unreliable and only has one good season on his resume.

Dan Straily is interesting, but I’m not giving up any of the aforementioned prospects for him.

And for those who’ve specifically asked about Gerrit Cole and Jeff Samardzija: neither are upgrades over your current staff.

Ivan Nova is interesting, if you can get past the irony.  Very good pitcher with a very team friendly contract.  My guess is Pittsburgh would hang on to him or ask for the moon in return.

Other things to keep in mind when contemplating a deal like this:

1. The above pitchers are worth about 2 to 3 wins per season.  The prospect position players mentioned should be better, and…
2. …for a longer period.  Starting pitchers are fragile.  Not that long ago Anthony Rizzo for Matt Harvey or Mookie Betts for Noah Syndergaard wouldn’t have even been considered.

Again, things need to play out more, but I like where the Yankees are.

Thanks to Baseball Reference as usual for the numbers.

Tanaka vs. Gausman - what to watch:

Many eyes will be on Masahiro Tanaka today.  As we all know, we don’t need an exhaustive statistical review to know the ace of the staff hasn’t been performing as such.  In mid-June with the Yankees in first place it’s a mild concern.  But again, the Yankees are thinking October this year, and it’s hard to picture them succeeding in October without Tanaka pitching like one of the best pitchers in the American League as he was last season.

Here are a few things to watch for today against Baltimore:

Unlike most pitchers, Tanaka doesn’t rely on one pitch predominantly.  For the most part, Masahiro throws the fastball, slider and splitter about the same percentage of the time.

Although Tanaka’s performance with his fastball this season has been awful – 39^th among 41 qualifying American League pitchers - he may want to utilize it today along with the splitter, more so than the slider.  (Unlike his fastball performance, the results of his splitter have been average compared to other AL starting pitchers so far this season.)

Among 89 qualifiers, Baltimore doesn’t have any batters in the top 25 vs. fastballs or splitters.  As a team they are 11^th in the AL vs. fastballs and 8^th among AL teams vs. the splitter. Their scariness, which hasn’t been that scary this year (11^th in AL in runs scored) has shown itself on breaking balls, predominantly sliders.  Mark Trumbo and Adam Jones specifically, are two of the better slider hitters in the American League.

If Tanaka can limit the number of sliders and/or keep them out of the strike zone for show, watch for him to bounce back with a good start today.  Assuming quality command - which admittedly is a huge assumption based on recent history - being aggressive with the fastball and splitter should reap dividends.

Unlike Tanaka, today’s starter for Baltimore Kevin Gausman throws fastballs predominantly, and ranks 30^th out of 41 qualifiers with the fastball.  That combination has resulted in him having a season similar in unpleasantness to Tanaka.

Problem for the Birds is, the Yankees are the best fastball hitting team in the big leagues.  More specifically, Aaron Judge, Starlin Castro, Matt Holliday and Aaron Hicks are all among the top 15 fastball hitters in the American League.  If Gausman follows his typical plan, he’s probably in for a short afternoon.

However, the Yankees’ kryptonite this season has been the slider.  They rank 13^th among AL teams vs. the slider and have no one player in the top 30 against slider.

It would behoove Gausman to go to his 2^nd most frequent, but still rarely used pitch against the AL’s leading run producers.

Keep an eye out today and let me know what you think.

As usual, thanks to fangraphs for the stats.

Yankees offense - good news, bad news.

It's approximately the 1/3 mark of the MLB season and the Yankees have one of the best offenses and one of the best teams overall, in baseball.  This affords us the pleasant opportunity to think about what holes and/or problems may hold them back from October success.  Again, a fun problem and discussion to have, since clearly the positives far outweigh the negatives on this team.

I’ve discussed this recently, so I won’t re-hash too much, but the Yankee outfield is not only the best in baseball this season, but would be one of the best of all time if they continue to perform over the final 2/3 of the season as they have thus far.  Yes, seriously – one of the best ever.

For some perspective, the 1961 Yankees with Mantle, Maris and Berra in the outfield (ever hear of those guys?) had a combined 17.4 wins above replacement.  Aaron Judge, Aaron Hicks and Brett Gardner are on pace for 25 wins above replacement this season.

Among active AL outfielders, Judge is 1^st in WAR, Hicks 4^th and Gardner 5^th.  Yes, not counting the disabled Mike Trout the Yankees have 3 of the best 4 outfielders in the American League.  (Bonus points if you can tell me who the other is without checking…)

Although I do believe that Judge, Hicks and Gardner are not flukes and will continue to play well, believing they will continue to perform at THAT high a level is unrealistic.

So the real question is can the infielders pick it up?  Because the problem with the OF being as dominant as they’ve been, is that it’s masked how awful the Yankee infield is.

Infielders – the good, the bad and the ugly…

The Good: Didi.

Didi Gregorius is a slightly better than average major leaguer, meaning he’s a good shortstop.  Among the 27 major league shortstops with as many plate appearances as Didi, he’s 8^th in OPS and on base percentage and 7^th in slugging percentage.  If you factor in the time he missed, he’s about a three win player.  If he’s the best player on your team, you have a crappy team, but with this outfield, Didi will do fine, as long as his career arc still leans towards improvement.

The Bad: Starlin Castro. 

Castro spent one month playing like Rogers Hornsby.  Since then he’s been Starlin Castro, which also previously discussed, is a below average player.  Since May 7^th, his on base percentage has dropped 52 points, his slugging percentage has dropped 66 points, his OPS+ has dropped 40 points.  Expect him to continue the downward trend to his career norms.

The ugly: Headley, Carter, Torreyes.

Let’s get Ronald Torreyes out of the way first, as he’s the non-regular.  He has a .298 OBP, .363 SLG, and a 76 OPS+.  100 OPS+ is league average.  So no, Torreyes is not a major league player however much you root for the little guy, figuratively or literally.

Chase Headley has a negative .1 WAR.  Negative.  As a reminder, the measuring stick term of “replacement player” means Joe Average AAA player.  So yes, Headley is worse than a minor leaguer at this point.  He has an OPS+ of 71 (worse than Torreyes, somehow) and he’s a train wreck defensively.

Chris Carter, if you can imagine, is worse than Torreyes and Headley.  Among 28 Major League 1B with as much playing time as he, he’s 27^th in OBP, SLG and dead last in OPS+.  A man who led the NL in HR last year currently has a 68 OPS+.

So under the assumption that Judge, Hicks and Gardner will come back to the pack a little, can the Yankees make that up with their infielders?

Possible.  If we’re talking about Gleyber Torres, Rob Refsnyder and Greg Bird.

Is Torres ready to play in the big leagues?  Maybe, maybe not, but it’s hard to believe he wouldn’t be better than Headley.  Remember, Headley is worse than Joe minor leaguer.

Refsnyder may have limitations, but unlike Headley, Carter and Torreyes, he gets on base.

And Bird is the question mark on which much of this hinges.  But again, hard to believe he won’t be better than Carter upon his return.

If the Yankees can get any production from those three they should be able to stay among baseball’s leaders in runs scored.  But I’m going to be the glass half full guy and say they all will produce, and the Yankee’s “O” will be just fine.

As usual, thanks to baseball reference for the numbers.