The most underrated player in MLB and the human wind parachute:

They're both Yankees.

The identity of the human wind parachute should come as no surprise to you.  The Yankees with their success in 2017 have reached a critical time in how they handle the albatross of Jacoby Ellsbury.  Prior to this year, due to a combination of low team expectations and the lack of depth, sending him out there every day…just…because…could have been justified with a shoulder shrug.

Not anymore.  The Yankees are one of the best teams in baseball and are surely looking at the big picture for 2017 – i.e. October.  Combine that with the Yankees’ new found very deep and very talented outfield roster and now Ellsbury’s play is a problem.

I won’t go into beating a dead horse too much about Ellsbury and his lack of production over the course of his Yankee career.  But I did check, and I’ll leave it at this:  He’s playing better this season than at any point in his Yankee career – and he’s still only an average major league player, at best.

Again, if you had low expectations for your team, or if you had plus players at all other positions, or if you had zero outfield depth, you may be able to live with it.  But none of the above is true.  The Yankees have high expectations for the team, they have below major league level performances at 3B and 1B (and for the next 3 months, probably 2B too), and have some SERIOUS depth among their outfield roster.

To the 3^rd point…

The Yankees have 3 of the best 10 outfielders in baseball.

No, that’s not a misprint.  Among major league outfielders with a minimum of 144 plate appearances, 2017 WAR rankings, Aaron Judge is #2, Brett Gardner is #6 and Aaron Hicks is #11.  Given that Hicks has been on the field less often than any of the 10 players above him, to me that means he’s played better than some of them.  I’ll come back to that…

The Yankees simply cannot afford to have Ellsbury taking at bats away from any of those three.  It simply will cost the team wins.

What about the need for a 4^th outfielder you ask?

Currently in AAA, Dustin Fowler has a .351 on base percentage, .581 slugging percentage for an OPS of .933.  Clint Frazier is dealing a .335 OBP, .506 SLG, .841 OPS season.  Both have above average range as outfielders.

The Yankees HAVE to find a way to convince another team to take Ellsbury off their hands, even if it means eating the bulk of his salary.  His presence is literally costing them wins in a season where you’ll need all of them. 

I’m not going to do Brian Cashman’s research for him, but I would watch Kansas City.  If they continue to play poorly, they’ll become deadline sellers, and they have several free agents that would be big chips for contending teams – CF Lorenzo Cain being one of them.  Maybe the Yankees can pull off a 3 team deal, with Cain going to a contender that needs a CF.  KC may be interested in taking Ellsbury to simply fill the spot short term, while the Yankees eat the salary.  Maybe KC they can even get cash from the third team…

Back to Aaron Hicks.  Aaron Hicks is the most underrated player in baseball.

As I mentioned, Hicks has contributed more to his teams wins than 60 of the other 70 outfielders in baseball with a minimum of 144 plate appearances.  Aaron Hicks has 144 plate appearances exactly, meaning the other 70 have had more opportunities to contribute.

As a reference, he has a higher WAR than Charlie Blackmon, George Springer, Giancarlo Stanton and Ben Zobrist – all bona fide, or emerging stars.

He’s third among MLB OF in on base percentage, only behind Mike Trout and Bryce Harper.

He’s 5^th in OPS+, 6^th in OPS, 9^th in slugging percentage.

And if you’re wondering if he’s going through a hot streak where he’s finding holes, he’s hitting .298 on batted balls in play, which is in the bottom half of MLB outfielders and below league average.  In other words, he’s been unlucky.

Throw in that he’s a switch hitter who can play three positions at about a league average level - that adds immense value to a team that’s virtually impossible to grade numerically.  I’ll let Joe Girardi explain the ways in which that flexibility helps both in single game management and long term planning.

If the Yankees are serious about winning in 2017, we’re going to need to see more of Aaron Hicks and (much) less of Jacoby Ellsbury.

Thanks as always to baseball reference for the numbers.

One third of the way through...

Memorial Day review and preview

Decided to go in a slightly different direction today, since there’s nothing to discuss about the Yankees that isn’t already being discussed ad nauseum:  Aaron Judge is having the best season any righty Yankee right fielder has ever had. Yep, better than any that Bob Meusel, Dave Winfield or Gary Sheffield had.

The countdown to a Bronx Gleyber Torres sighting is quickening with the decline of Chase Headley combined with Ronald Torreyes’ general inefficiency and low ceiling.

Starlin Castro has crashed back to earth after spending 6 weeks playing like Rogers Hornsby.  He’s returned to playing like…well…Starlin Castro – which isn’t a compliment.

So I’m going to briefly discuss two other topics today, MLB related, as we reach the unofficial one-third mark of the 2017 season.  (Although one of them concerns the Yankees…)

First: Mike Trout

Mike Trout is 25 years old.  He’ll turn 26 on August 7^th.

Mike Trout has accomplished more than any player in the history of the sport at that age.

I’ll allow a moment for that to waft over you.

No player who’s played since electricity was invented has had 4 seasons of 9 or higher WAR at that age. (Rogers Hornsby and Ty Cobb had 4 each.)  Mike Trout has had 4 and is on pace for his 5^th this season.

In the history of the game, only Mickey Mantle, Babe Ruth, Rogers Hornsby, Ted Williams and Ty Cobb had two 10 win seasons by that age.

Trout has had two and is on pace for his third this season – he’ll end up with 10.5 at his current 2017 rate.

Which brings me to…

He’s having his best season.  He’s actually getting better.  He’s on pace to have personal single season highs in HR, batting average, on base percentage, slugging percentage, on base plus slugging (OPS) and OPS+.

So at the risk of beating a dead horse, when you get a chance to watch this guy play – do it.  We’re watching one of the best ever and most of us don’t realize it.

Who is the best team in baseball?

It’s not too early to start thinking about the post season, especially around here.

So that got me thinking:  Who is the best team in baseball, and perhaps more importantly, on whom do we need to keep our eyes?

As to the first question, the contenders for Memorial Day title of best team in baseball are in no particular order, Washington, Houston, LA Dodgers and the Yankees.

They are top 4 in run differential – a number that historically correlates to teams’ long term, full season success.

According to Baseball reference, they rank first through fourth in simple rating system which combines run differential with strength of schedule.  More specifically, the Yankees are ranked as the best team in this category largely due to their difficult schedule thus far.  They’ve had the 5^th hardest schedule in all of baseball so far this year – the other three teams are in the bottom six – i.e., they’ve had very easy schedules.

Wondering if any of them have been lucky?

When comparing run differential to actual wins and losses, Houston has been the luckiest team in baseball.  They actually should have around three wins fewer than they do.  Conversely, the Dodgers are actually playing with poor luck – they have three fewer wins than would be expected based on their run differential.

And not surprisingly, the four are near the top in team on base percentage and they are numbers 1-4 in pitchers' WHIP (walks plus hits divided by innings pitched).  There is some serious significance to those numbers.  There is only one statistic that year in and year out correlates directly to runs scored and runs prevented:  How many batters your team gets on base and how many do your pitchers prevent from reaching base.

Bottom line:  The Yankees, Houston, Washington and the Dodgers are the best teams in baseball and there’s no reason to expect that to change – great news if you root for any of those teams.

As to the question of who do we need to watch…

Are there teams out there who are flying under the radar who we can expect to join this discussion as the season moves on?  I like two teams to fit this bill:

The Diamondbacks are 5^th in baseball in run differential.  They’re in the middle of the schedule strength pack so they haven’t been beating up on weaklings.  Baseball Reference currently has them ranked right behind the aforementioned four teams in their simple rating system.  They are 9^th and 7^th in baseball in team OBP and WHIP – so they get runners on and they prevent them from getting on pretty efficiently.

They also have one of their best players (one of the more underrated in baseball - A.J. Pollock) returning soon.

But perhaps even more importantly than that, they have Princeton graduate Mike Hazen as a GM making decisions.  To say that’s a major upgrade over self-described “real baseball man” Dave Stewart is a huge understatement.  When/if moves need to be made in July, they’re in good hands.

Don’t sleep on the Sawx…

Boston is 8^th in run differential despite facing a relatively tough schedule. 

As far as the numbers I love, the get on base more frequently than any team in baseball.  They are among the leaders in not chasing pitches outside the strike zone, and taking pitches in general.

They’re also 3^rd in MLB in percentage of batted balls that are line drives, so despite their below league average team slugging percentage, they’re hitting the ball hard - expect the slg % to rise.

And among reasons for optimism (if you’re a Sox fan) is that Hanley Ramirez has picked it up lately, David Price is returning.  And Dustin Pedroia is going to produce more over the next two thirds of the season than he has thus far.  He’s in the top ten among second basemen in line drive percentage and is currently slugging at a very low .382 rate.  Expect him to get closer to his career .443 rate, especially if he’s hitting the ball as hard as he is.

And as we know about Boston, they have the mindset and resources to bolster the roster in July as needed.

A lot has to go right for Boston to win it this year, but Fangraphs has them as twice as likely to win the World Series as the Yankees.  And the folks at Fangraphs are pretty smart.

As always, thanks to Baseball Reference and Fangraphs for the numbers.

Thoughts and ramblings 5/20/17

I didn’t have any one topic this week that required 1,000 words of my analyzation, so I’m going in a slightly different direction.  Here’s what amounts to a smattering of random thoughts…

Minor league watch:

Even with the Yankees great start many are still wondering when we’ll see Gleyber Torres and Clint Frazier in the Bronx.  Hey, when you give up Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller it’s understandable to get anxious to see what you got in return.

Both Torres (AA) and Frazier (AAA) have above league averages in both on base percentage and slugging percentage, so they’re meeting expectations and then some.

The problem with Frazier is that Ellsbury is playing well, Gardner and Hicks are playing very well and Aaron Judge is, well…Aaron Judge.  More on that in a minute…

Torres as an infielder, with Ronald Torreyes, Chase Headley, Didi Gregorius and Starlin Castro ahead of him on the depth chart is far more likely to be seen in the Bronx this season.  Replacing Headley outright or taking Torreyes’ roster spot so Headley can be a part time player seem like possibilities given the declining production of Headley and Torreyes.  Headley is essentially a below average player at this point and Torreyes is well below that bar.

One thing of note re: Gleyber Torres:  He has 4 stolen bases this season vs. 4 caught stealing.  For his career in the minor leagues he has 57 stolen bases with 38 caught stealing.

He needs to stop trying to steal bases because he’s awful at it.

And because I wrote about it a few weeks back, Rob Refsnyder currently has a .408 OBP in AAA.  So again, not sure what the Yankees feel his shortcomings are, but the dude has always gotten on base at whatever level he’s played.  (Cue Brad Pitt from “Moneyball”: He can’t throw, he can’t run, but what can he do?  Guys, if you don’t look at your reports I’m going to point to Pete again…he gets on base.”

Aaron Judge

…is on pace to have the best season ever by a right handed batter for the Yankees.  I may have just jinxed him, so I’ll write it again:  Aaron Judge is on pace to have a better season than any that Bob Meusel, Joe D., Elston Howard, Dave Winfield, ARod and/or Rickey Henderson ever had as Yankees. Judge is on pace for 10.4 WAR this season which would be higher than anyone who wore pinstripes not named Ruth, Gehrig or Mantle.  (Rickey has the highest for a right handed batter with 9.9 in 1985 – almost 3 more wins than his teammate who won the MVP award that season.)

Mike Trout

On a non-Yankee note, if you get a chance, check out Mike Trout this weekend.  Normally, due to the formidable combination of a) playing on the west coast, b) playing for a shitty team, c) baseball doing a great job of hiding its best players, we rarely get to see him. 

But here’s the thing:  He’s one of the best players of all time.  I don’t mean he’s the best player in today’s game as he is generally regarded – he’s one of the best EVER.  I could easily make a case for him being top 10 all time. 

The Angels are at Citi-field this weekend, so if you’re in this area you’ll get the Mets feed if not other options.  If you get a chance to see a player on that level, you don’t miss it.

Paging Adam Warren (bye C.C.?)

I hear you – you know how bad C.C. has been this year.

No, I don’t think you do.

Let’s take a look back for just a second:  2016 looked like what may have been an average season for C.C. - he was middle of the road in most baseball card stats - but it’s easy to make the case he got lucky. Among 39 pitchers who qualified for the E.R.A title last season, he had a low batting average on balls in play (16^th), benefitted from many double plays* (6^th) and allowed a high opponents’ on base percentage (27^th).

In other words, he allowed many base runners, many balls were hit at fielders, and many double plays were turned.

This season he hasn’t been quite as lucky.  Frankly, he’s been terrible.  The extent to which is probably flying under the radar because of the Yankees good start as a team.

Out of 50 American League pitchers who currently qualify for the American League ERA title, C.C is 45^th in fielding independent pitching, 47^th in ERA+, 42^nd in strikeouts per 9 innings, 46^th in strikeout to walk ratio, 47^th in strikeout percentage, 45^th in opponents’ on base percentage* and 34^th in balls grounded into double plays.

If you’re new to those numbers they mean this:  He doesn’t miss bats, he walks guys and gives up home runs.  That’s a bad combination.  Basically, he’s in the 2nd tier in the discussion of worst American League starting pitchers.

Those last two numbers in particular – opponents on base percentage and balls grounded into double plays are huge – it’s the difference between this year and last.

He’s allowing batters to reach base .354 percent of the time.  To put this in perspective, the Nationals and the Yankees are first and second respectively in the Major League in runs scored.  Not coincidentally, they are also first and second in on base percentage, at .359 and .356 respectively.

So essentially every time C.C. takes the hill, the other team is just as good as the Nationals and Yankees offensively.

Bottom line: Last year men were put on base, balls were hit at fielders, double plays were turned.

This year, men are put on base, balls are hit in gaps, many runs are allowed.

Admittedly, (as I’ve said before) being bad among regular starting pitchers doesn’t necessarily mean you’re bad.  You certainly may be better than all other pitchers who aren’t good enough to get that may innings in the first place.  But in the case of the Yankees, I think you have someone that would do better with the same workload. 

Paging Adam Warren.

I understand it’s only 17 innings in 2017 so far for Warren, but it’s been a dominant 17 innings for him.  And as of this writing, he does have 373 career big league innings and is above major league averages in fielding independent pitching and ERA+.  In 2015 with the Yankees, in 17 starts, Warren was better than league average in most serious categories including a very impressive 124 ERA+.  

Perhaps instead of looking outside the organization for a starter to bolster the rotation, perhaps just look to Warren.  C.C., as a lefty who can handle multiple innings may be more valuable in relief.**

As usual, I’d love to hear your thoughts.

Random note:  Watch C.C’s pitches up and away to right handed batters.  He’s getting killed there.  He yields the highest exit velocity, the highest batting average and the fewest swings and misses of any other area of the strike zone.

*I know, one could argue that inducing double plays is a skill.  But that’s kinda’ like saying a fighter has a great chin – it’s a back handed compliment – it means he gets hit cleanly a lot.  You have to allow a lot of base runners on in the first place to get a lot of double plays.

**Yes, I understand there are intangible issues to players and teams when asking a player like C.C. to take a demotion.

Castro: Buy or Sell (2017)

So Starlin Castro was awful in 2016.  Yes, seriously – see my previous blog.  But nobody really noticed or cared because he was better than Stephen Drew.  But in 2017, we’ve seen a much different and much better Starlin Castro.

As of this writing, he’s had 107 plate appearances, 100 at bats, and played in 25 games – essentially one sixth of a season based on his average career games played.

He’s hit for a .360 batting average, 5 home runs and 16 runs batted in.  Extrapolated to a full season, that’s 30HR and 96 RBI – not bad for a 2^nd baseman.  But let’s be honest, none of those numbers are fair indicators of performance.  For the most part, they are made up of part player skill and a large part of circumstances beyond that player’s control.

So let’s look numbers that are less at the mercy of outside circumstances: On Base Percentage, Slugging Percentage, On base plus slugging, On base plus and slugging adjusted from this season compared to his career averages (and in a minute, we’ll look at what pitches he’s swinging at, what he’s hitting and how hard he’s hitting it):

Castro this season compared to his career averages:

OBP - .402 this season, .320 career average.

SLG - .550/.412

OPS - .952/.732

OPS+ - 160/98

Quick side notes:  At a salary of $9.8 million this year, production like this over 162 games is a steal.  Only Morgan, Grich, and Kent have had seasons of 160 or higher OPS+ as a 2B since World War II.

To put his 2017 success into further perspective, among 23 regular second baseman, he currently ranks 2^nd in OBP, SLG, OPS and OPS+.  (Second only to Murphy or Altuve in those categories.)

So what could be the difference between this season’s success and last year’s lack thereof?

Besides the obvious: it’s a small sample size and most players revert to the mean of their careers, let’s get more specific:

For starters, he’s swinging at fewer pitches outside the strike zone compared to last season, but only marginally (33% from 36%).  And this is hard to believe, since I still think he swings at everything…

He’s also making more contact. The percentage of balls he swings at and puts in play is up from last year - up to 83% from 78%

These are good things of course.  Problem is he isn’t hitting the ball any harder.

Among all MLB 2B, he’s 15^th in line drive percentage and 16^th in percentage of balls hit that are hit hard.  So he’s putting more balls in play, but not hitting them any harder.  And both his line drive percentage and hard hit balls percentage are down from his own numbers in '16.

Which leads to BABIP…

Batting average on balls in play is literally what it sounds like.  It’s generally a good indication of whether or not the player’s batted balls are “finding holes”.  I.e., “is the player getting lucky?”

Castro’s 2017 BABIP is .397.  That’s 3^rd highest among 2B, and 14^th in MLB among all players.  It’s also 92 points higher than his BABIP last year (Castro’s BABIP last year was about the league average.)

In other words, his BABIP so far this season is very high.

So if I’m being asked if I’m buying or selling Starlin Castro, I’m selling.

To me it’s a simple equation:  He’s not hitting the ball any harder than he has in the past but the ball is finding holes.  In other words, he’s been getting lucky.  Expect that to change.

Perhaps there have been tactical and philosophical adjustments at the plate that have led to more discipline and higher contact percentage.  Let’s hope so.  But even so, that wouldn’t justify the enormous jump in production this season.

I’d say go with Castro’s history, especially recent history, and expect the first month of his 2017 campaign to be an aberration.

See also; Ian Desmond 2016.

Thanks to Baseball Reference and Fangraphs for the numbers.

Starlin Castro: Under the Radar Quandary

Author’s note:  I wrote this the day before opening day, 2017.  Now that we’re about one sixth into the season and around 100 at bats, I’ll update this in a few days.  Given Castro’s start, I’m as curious as anyone to see to what extent his success will be maintained.

Players currently on the Yankees’ roster who haven’t lived up to expectations aren’t exactly a rarity.  Due to this, and perhaps because it’s not as glaring as the under achievement of Jacoby Ellsbury and others, the lack of production from Starlin Castro has flown under the radar to this point.

An examination of his contributions show there aren’t too many positives on which a Castro supporter can hang his hat.  His HR production in 2016 wasn’t the glass half full many believed it to be (more below), his durability - he’s averaged 153 games played over the last six seasons, 151 last season as a Yankee - is really only a positive if production comes along with it, and his young age might otherwise suggest we can expect improvement. 

Except for the minor detail that despite his relative youth, he’s career has shown regression, not progression to this point.

In fact, Castro has been a completely different player in the past four seasons than he was in his first three, and not for the better.  Consider his first three season averages compared to the last 4 seasons:

On Base Percentage .337 first three seasons, .305 since.

Slugging Percentage .423/.398

OPS+ 104/91

WAR season average 2.67/.88

Defensive WAR .4/-1

His supporters might say he bounced back with 21 HR last season with the Yankees and that, combined with his youth may point to an upcoming progression in his production.

I would say “not so fast”…

In fact, his 21 HR were 8^th among eleven regular American League second basemen in 2016, so even his apparent positive was below average among his peers.  Using statistics that I feel are more accurate representations of actual contributions, among eleven American League second basemen who logged 400 plate appearances and played 80% of their games at 2B in 2016, Castro ranked:

9^th in On Base Percentage.

10^th in Runs Created, Defensive WAR, Defensive Runs Saved.

Dead last in Slugging, OPS+, WAR, and base running.

And with a batting average of balls in play of .305, it wasn’t as if he were hitting with tough luck.

In fact, one could argue his only true positive is that he was an upgrade from Stephen Drew.  Insert your sarcastic joke here:

In all fairness, it has to be mentioned that being among the bottom of regulars means you may be better than many who aren’t good enough to be regulars, and with that, you might draw the conclusion he’s better than other available options for the Yankees.

But it does beg the question, as long as the Yankees are in their version of rebuilding, should Rob Refsnyder to get more playing time at 2B? 

Refsnyder’s MLB sample size is small, but his OBP of .332 over 222 plate appearances is much better than Castro’s.  Additionally, over three minor league seasons in which most of his plate appearances were in AAA, he posted seasons of .387, .359 and .365 OBP.  To me, this suggests he has a propensity to reach base at a better rate than Castro.  And with respect to that and the other numbers, could he be worse?

I’m not the agent representing Rob Refsnyder, but it does appear the issue is worth some discussion.

Thanks to Baseball Reference for the statistics.